MacroLens terminal · Colombo · November 2026

Sri Lanka's macro, mapped to the revenue line.

Eleven indicators onto twelve CSE sectors - direction, magnitude and lag - refreshed on the release calendar. Every number carries its publisher and its date.

Today and the outlook

The latest dated print for ten headline indicators, and where each sits against our Forward view range. Measured data and ranges are kept apart: figures are published prints, bars are conditional ranges from the 15 Sep 2026 vintage, not point forecasts.

Policy and prices

Policy rate (OPR)

held 30 Sep 2026 · CBSL MPR No. 5

inside the range

8.75%

next review 20 Nov 2026

8.0–9.0%

12 months · medium-low

17 Oct: assumptions review pending; frozen ranges not recalibrated or newly validated

Notes and provenance

17 Oct source review: renewed Middle East energy-route disruption and Brent $109.86 (16 Oct, Dow Jones/CNBC) trigger an assumptions review. These frozen ranges have not been recalibrated or newly validated; review is pending.8.75% held 30 Sep 2026 · inside the range

CCPI inflation, y/y

Oct’26 · CBSL / DCS

above the range

8.3%

+0.3 pts vs Sep

4.0–6.0%

12 months · medium confidence

17 Oct: assumptions review pending; frozen ranges not recalibrated or newly validated

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Sep’25 to Sep’26 (1 gap, not interpolated)

USD / LKR

open feed, 2 Nov 2026

inside the range

332.39

monthly average 329.50 in Sep’26 (CBSL)

323–346

12 months · low confidence

17 Oct: assumptions review pending; frozen ranges not recalibrated or newly validated

Notes and provenance

line: CBSL monthly averages, not the daily rate; 12 monthly prints, Jul’25 to Aug’26 (2 gaps, not interpolated)

DBU loans & advances, y/y

Jul’26 · commercial-bank domestic units; not private credit

24.2%

down 0.5 pts vs Jun

No Forward view range for this indicator

Notes and provenance

line: 12 verified monthly prints, Aug’25 to Jul’26; series relabelled and shortened

External sector

Gross official reserves

Sep’26 · CBSL

below the range

$6.87bn

down 0.9% vs prior

$7.2–8.6bn

end-2026 · medium-low

17 Oct: assumptions review pending; frozen ranges not recalibrated or newly validated

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Aug’25 to Sep’26 (1 gap, not interpolated)

Merchandise exports

Sep’26 · CBSL customs basis, goods only

$1,377m

up 11.0% vs prior

No Forward view range for this indicator

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Aug’25 to Aug’26 (1 gap, not interpolated). EDB total incl. services ($1,601m) is a different series

Trade balance

Aug’26 · CBSL (exports minus imports)

-$674m

deficit narrower by $344m vs prior

No Forward view range for this indicator

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Aug’25 to Aug’26 (1 gap, not interpolated)

Worker remittances

Sep’26 · CBSL

$734m

down 1.9% vs prior

No Forward view range for this indicator

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Jul’25 to Sep’26 (2 gaps, not interpolated)

Activity

Tourist arrivals

Sep’26 · SLTDA monthly report

158,557

down 17.3% vs prior

No Forward view range for this indicator

Notes and provenance

line: 12 monthly prints, Sep’25 to Sep’26 (1 gap, not interpolated)

Real GDP growth, y/y

Q2’26 · DCS / CBSL

inside the range

4.2%

down 0.9 pts vs prior

3.0–4.2%

2026 · medium confidence

17 Oct: assumptions review pending; frozen ranges not recalibrated or newly validated

Notes and provenance

line: 12 quarterly prints, Q3’23 to Q2’26

Sources: CBSL, DCS, SLTDA and the ExchangeRate-API open feed; each row states its own period. The credit history is commercial-bank DBU total loans and advances, not private-sector credit: 12 verified end-month points, Aug2025-Jul2026; earlier points are withheld. The GDP nowcast uses a separately dated banking-system private-credit input. Markers compare the latest reading with a range for a later horizon; they are not a prediction that the reading will move. Full Forward view and break conditions.

Sector impact · signals

Signals: dated observations, shown straight

Live exchange data and dated official prints, each with its source and date.

The chain this page follows: dated economic prints → the desk’s read → which business revenue lines they touch (analyst model) → where each followed name sits in its own year. Patterns untested; nothing here is advice.

Today’s tape - one session across every followed name

Outlook - what the evidence says, at a glance

Assessed 31 Oct 2026 · re-assessed when a driver changes or a cited window expires (next: DMC bulletin, 16:00 SLT Sun 1 Nov)

Assessed 31 Oct 2026 from the cited prints. The assessed date does not move with source dates. A measured driver does not by itself establish a market outcome; assessments are dated analyst readings, and nothing here predicts stock prices or advises buying or selling.

Dated observations and watchpoints - not predictions, probabilities or advice.

Coming days - weeks

Steady - fuel and inflation are the pressure

Policy rate held at 8.75%, T-bill yields broadly steady, warning levels lower for this window; fuel still expensive, and inflation rose to a 40-month high in October.

Why, evidence and what would change it

Are short-term costs and warning levels steady or worsening?

The policy rate is held at 8.75% and observed T-bill yields are broadly steady, the 91-day up 2bp at the 28 October auction. Landslide warning levels are lower for the current bulletin window - that is warning status, not measured recovery on the ground. Fuel-import costs stay high, and headline inflation rose to 8.3% y/y in October. This concerns costs and warning status - it says nothing about where share prices go.

Steady / lower

Policy rate held at 8.75% on 30 September
Landslide bulletin EXPIRED 16:00 SLT Sun 1 Nov (was Level 1 yellow, Kandy/Kegalle only); no successor on the DMC list at the 2 Nov check

Working the other way

91-day T-bill yield rose 2bp to 9.34% at the 28 October auction
Consumer inflation 8.3% y/y in October, a 40-month high, up from 8.0% in September
Brent at $113.43 (January front month); local pump prices Rs 424 (petrol 92) and Rs 397 (auto diesel) per litre after the 2 November CPC revision

CCPI 8.3% y/y in October 2026, up from 8.0% in September. CCPI measures consumer prices.DCS release, 30 Oct 2026
OPR held at 8.75% at the 30 September review; next announcement Friday 20 November 2026 (Monetary Policy Board meets Thursday 19 November).CBSL advance release calendar 2026
T-bill yields 9.34% (91-day, +2bp) / 9.44% (182-day) / 9.95% (364-day) at the 28 October auction; Rs 86.48bn raised of Rs 100bn offered.EconomyNext, citing PDMO · 28 Oct 2026
38th DMC/NBRO landslide bulletin: warning narrowed - Level 1 (yellow) only in Kandy (Yatinuwara DSD) and Kegalle (Aranayake and Mawanella DSDs); Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura left the warning; no amber or red, valid 16:00 31 Oct to 16:00 1 Nov; 12,032 people affected as of 27 October. Warning levels describe assessed hazard, not conditions on the ground.DMC/NBRO bulletin LEWM-31-10-2026-1600-38 · 31 Oct 2026; NewsFirst · 27 Oct 2026
Brent's expiring December contract settled at $117.64 on 30 October (+2.40%), its highest since late April, after Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz (AP) and Reuters/UKMTO confirmed one limpet-mine strike; the January contract stood at $113.43; pump prices from the 2 November CPC revision (petrol 92 octane Rs 424.00, auto diesel Rs 397.00; NewsFirst/Daily Mirror/The Morning; CPC price-history page unreachable at this check).Dow Jones via Morningstar · 29 Oct 2026; CBSL · 28 Oct 2026
Israel’s election produced no clear winner with ~90% of votes counted.Al Jazeera · 29 Oct 2026

What would change thisThe 20 November rate decision; weekly T-bill auction yields; a further leg up in Brent; re-escalation in DMC warning levels.

1 - 3 months

Busy, but costly

Tourist arrivals near record, credit expanding, an eleventh straight quarter of GDP growth - and fuel costs high.

Why, evidence and what would change it

How strong is the activity listed companies sell into, and what is pressing on costs?

Activity is high - near-record tourist arrivals, fast credit expansion, an eleventh straight quarter of GDP growth. Fuel costs are also high. These are activity and cost readings; they do not show margins, and no sector-wide earnings direction is claimed. This concerns activity and costs, not share prices.

Activity is high

Tourist arrivals at 158,557 in September - a high level, 414 short of last September’s record; roughly flat on a year ago, not growth
Banking-system credit up 24.5% y/y in August - borrowing volume; whether it becomes end-demand is not measured
GDP up 4.2% in Q2, the eleventh straight quarter of growth

Costs are high

Brent near $113 (January front month) and pump prices at Rs 424/Rs 397 keep fuel expensive
Transport and manufacturing carry fuel-cost exposure (transmission matrix)

158,557 arrivals in September 2026 versus 158,971 in September 2025 - a near-record level, slightly below last year.SLTDA data via Daily Mirror · Sep 2026
Banking-system private-sector credit +24.5% y/y in August 2026.CBSL Weekly Economic Indicators · 9 Oct 2026
GDP +4.2% in 2026 Q2, eleven consecutive quarters of growth.DCS, cited in IMF press release 26/318 · 4 Oct 2026
Sector fuel-cost exposure follows the site’s transmission matrix.analyst estimate, not a fitted relationship; an exposure, not a measured margin effect · assessed 29 Oct 2026

What would change thisQuarterly earnings from banks, hotels and diversified groups; whether credit expansion holds; oil’s path; inflation direction into year-end.

6 - 12 months

Undecided - events pending

The 2027 Budget and the IMF Board decision have not landed; no directional view until they do.

Why, evidence and what would change it

What could shift the economy’s footing over the coming year?

Key unresolved factors include the 2027 Budget and IMF Board completion of the seventh review. Until they land, the evidence supports watching them, not a directional view. This concerns the macro footing, not stock prices.

On record, supportive

Gross official reserves US$6.9bn at end-August
Debt restructuring largely completed; banks well capitalised
Eleven consecutive quarters of growth

Open risks

IMF seventh review pending Board approval - no date published
IMF-flagged downside risks: Middle East war, trade policy, El Niño

Staff-level agreement on the seventh EFF review reached 4 October 2026; Board approval contingent on presentation of the 2027 Budget in line with program parameters and completion of the financing assurances review. No Board date is published, so this is tracked as pending, not scheduled.IMF press release 26/318 · 4 Oct 2026
Reserves US$6.9bn end-August 2026; “debt restructuring is largely completed”; “banks remain well capitalized and profitable.”IMF press release 26/318 · 4 Oct 2026
No directional lean is offered because the key swing factors are unresolved decisions and shocks, not trends the current record can extend.method note · assessed 29 Oct 2026

What would change thisIMF Board completion; the 2027 Budget’s contents; the reserves trend; whether the current shocks persist.

Dated events ahead · CBSL policy announcement: Fri 20 Nov 2026 (official advance calendar) · Weekly T-bill auctions (PDMO) · DMC landslide bulletin: latest bulletin expired 16:00 SLT Sun 1 Nov; no successor found as of the 1 Nov evening check · IMF Board consideration of the seventh review: pending, no published date

What the current prints mean for businesses

Each card starts from a dated, published print and names the business quantity the model exposes - the revenue line. Cards describe conditional sensitivity - what a rise in each driver would do to a revenue line in the model - not a claim that the driver is currently rising; the dated print under each driver name shows where it stands now. Costs, margins and valuations are outside this model, and an exposed revenue line is not a forecast of profits or share prices. The desk’s directional read, and what would change it, sits in the Outlook cards above.

Full driver map, with the model’s coefficients

Each number is the desk’s hypothesis for the approximate twelve-month change, in percent, in that sector’s revenue line for one unit of the driver - the unit is shown under each driver name. These are analyst-set working priors, documented in Method; they are not measured effects. + means the revenue line tends to rise when the indicator rises. A revenue-line response is not a profit, margin or share-price response.

The market today

Valuation, turnover and flow figures are the latest CSE daily summary only - the exchange serves the two most recent trading days, so no trend is drawn from them yet.

Sectors today - the exchange’s own indices

Native S&P/CSE sector names are kept as the exchange publishes them; the MacroLens 12-sector map is not forced onto them. Snapshot of the latest close - the feed serves the current day only.

All 28 followed names, grouped by economic exposure

Quotes for the 28 large caps the desk follows. A daily change records the session; it is not a short-term recommendation. Company macro exposure sits on the Company map.

The longer run - trends, not positions

Each card compares the latest dated official print with the print about six months (or two quarters) earlier; the exact gap is printed on each card. That is arithmetic on published prints, not a forecast and not a position call.

Method, sources and limits

The transmission map

Eleven indicators, twelve sectors, 132 documented links. Each cell carries a sign, a sensitivity, a lag and the P&L line that absorbs it - click a cell, then open the full working.

SectorOPRCCPIFXCreditArr.Oil

Banks1.40.6-0.22.60.1-0.1

NBFI-1.60.3-0.52.20-0.4

Insurance0.80.5-0.20.90.05-0.2

Telecom-0.20.4-0.90.20.3-0.2

Hotels-0.30.21.20.23.4-0.5

Consumer-0.90.3-0.71.30.3-0.5

Mobile overview · six leading sectors × six indicators · values match the full interactive 132-link matrix; full details are available on wider screens.

Revenue impact per unit move on each indicator, adverse → favourable strong negative → neutral → strong positive

All 132 links are documented. Cells, sector cards and the indicator strip each open a dossier; the full working is open to everyone.

Forward view: a range, not a promise

Compare dated IMF, ADB and World Bank annual outlooks and IMF review status →

Frozen 15 Sep base ranges built from the then-available 2020–2026 record and CBSL, IMF and ADB paths, with the drivers and break conditions stated. Each call is scored when its horizon closes. Source watch, 14 Oct: IMF October WEO projects annual GDP growth of 4.0% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. That newer official outlook is shown separately; these conditional ranges are not yet recalibrated.

ML▊FORWARD_VIEW

VINTAGE: 15 SEP 2026

BASE: 2020–2026 HISTORY

STATUS: CONDITIONAL

USD / LKR

323–346

12 months · low confidence

Reserves and strong remittances support the rupee. Recovering imports, oil and external debt service limit appreciation. The base starts at 328.58; this is a balance-of-payments range, not an official FX forecast.

CCPI inflation

4.0–6.0%

12 months · medium confidence

The 15 Sep range is frozen, not a new forecast. The newer 30 Sep CBSL release reports headline inflation at 8.0% and core at 5.4%, with headline projected to stay in high single digits through Q1 2027 before easing toward 5%. This later projection is not folded into the old range.

Real GDP growth

3.0–4.2%

2026 · medium confidence

At the 15 Sep vintage, IMF projected 3.0% and ADB 4.0%. Newer IMF October WEO projects 4.0% for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027; the frozen ranges below are not that official forecast. Credit and PMIs support activity; high oil, fiscal restraint and weaker net exports cap the upside. The 2027 range is 3.2–4.4%.

Policy rate

8.0–9.0%

12 months · medium-low

The OPR is 8.75% and near-term inflation is above target. A cut becomes more plausible only after inflation moves durably toward 5%; another oil shock would delay easing.

Gross reserves

$7.2–8.6bn

End-2026 · medium-low

The IMF anchor is $8.645bn. The range allows for debt service, oil and the timing of official inflows from the $6.59bn end-July base used when this forecast vintage was set (latest reported reserve reading: $6.867bn at end-September, CBSL 30 Oct; forecast range unchanged). End-2027: $9.5–11.8bn.

How the range is built[ENSEMBLE]

1. Start with the full available regime window: monthly inflation, FX, reserves and rates from 2020; quarterly GDP from Q1 2020. Correction: the displayed credit history is now DBU total loans, Aug2025-Jul2026 only, not a private-credit series; older points are withheld. 2. Anchor the centre on the newest CBSL path and the IMF–ADB forecast spread. 3. Move the near-term band only when dated MacroLens signals change. 4. Widen for oil, weather, external financing and policy uncertainty. Old forecast vintages stay visible for scoring.

What breaks the base case[RISKS]

Inflation / FX stress: Brent above $120 for a quarter, renewed Middle East disruption, or reserve misses. Stronger path: Brent below $80 alongside faster reserve accumulation, remittances and tourism. Ranges are conditional estimates, not investment advice.

Primary anchors: CBSL Monetary Policy Report, Aug 2026 · IMF seventh-review staff-level agreement, 4 Oct 2026 · ADB Outlook, Apr 2026 · CBSL CCPI, Oct 2026 · CBSL external sector, Jul 2026.

Neighbour exposure

How Sri Lanka's tourism and trade run through India and China, and how Sri Lanka's growth compares with its neighbours and with economies in a similar income position. Select a country on the map or in the table. Descriptive only: nothing here claims that a neighbour's activity causes Sri Lankan outcomes.

Select a country. Line weight on the map shows each country's share of August 2026 tourist arrivals (SLTDA); it carries no trade-flow volume. Schematic, not to scale; borders simplified. Base map: Natural Earth (public domain).

Economy	Group	2024	2025	2026 proj.	GDP/cap 2025
Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka	5.0%	5.0%	4.0%	$5,004
India †	Neighbour + peer	7.2%	7.8%	7.0%	$2,670
China	Neighbour	5.0%	5.0%	4.5%	$13,970
Bangladesh †	Neighbour + peer	4.2%	3.5%	3.6%	$2,636
Pakistan †	Neighbour	2.6%	3.2%	3.6%	$1,697
Nepal †	Neighbour	3.7%	4.4%	3.6%	$1,536
Maldives	Neighbour	3.3%	6.3%	1.0%	$18,886
Cambodia	Peer	6.0%	5.3%	3.0%	$2,838
Indonesia	Peer	5.0%	5.1%	5.1%	$5,078
Papua New Guinea	Peer	3.9%	6.2%	3.1%	$3,183
Philippines	Peer	5.7%	4.4%	3.4%	$4,278
Thailand †	Peer	2.9%	2.4%	2.1%	$8,057
Vietnam	Peer	7.0%	8.0%	8.4%	$4,829
Peer median (8)	Rule below	5.4%	5.2%	3.5%

† Fiscal-year reporters (IMF WEO Table F): India April-March; Bangladesh and Pakistan July-June; Nepal mid-August to mid-July; Thailand October-September. Sri Lanka and the unmarked economies report on calendar years, so the † rows are not like-for-like with them, and the peer median mixes both (India, Bangladesh and Thailand are fiscal-year peers).

WHAT COULD THIS MEAN FOR SRI LANKA?

Country If this happens

Measured items carry a publisher and date. Mechanism items are analyst reasoning about direction only: no elasticities, no forecast and no claim that a change in one country causes a change in Sri Lanka. The opposite move (faster growth, a stronger currency, lower rates) touches the same channels, but the effect is not automatically the mirror image: it can be smaller, larger or absent depending on conditions. The frozen 24 Sep forecast is not affected by anything here.

Growth is real GDP, annual percent change, from IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026, verified 14 Oct through the IMF DataMapper v2 series NGDP_RPCH. All 2024, 2025 and 2026 growth figures, including Sri Lanka, use this single October vintage. 2026 is a projection; historical observations may be revised or estimated. Annual and quarterly growth are never mixed here. The IMF reporting basis is calendar year except the marked fiscal-year economies; the fiscal-year reference below is Table F of the April statistical appendix. GDP per capita is current US$ for 2025 from the same October WEO series NGDPDPC, rounded to the nearest dollar for display.

Peer rule (mechanical, not hand-picked): World Bank region is South Asia or East Asia and Pacific; 2025 population is at least 5 million; and 2025 IMF GDP per capita is between half and double Sri Lanka's unrounded US$5,003.692, an inclusive band of US$2,501.846 to US$10,007.384. Population and GDP per capita use the October WEO. This still gives 8 peers: Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Maldives are also shown as neighbours. Pakistan and Nepal are below the income band, China is above it and Maldives is under 5 million people. World Bank country classifications were rechecked 14 Oct; Sri Lanka is upper-middle income. The growth median is a simple unweighted median of the eight peers, computed before rounding. It mixes calendar-year and marked fiscal-year observations, so it is descriptive, not a like-for-like causal test.

October WEO source series: real GDP growth; GDP per capita; population. Preserved April comparison, table and method. The tourism/trade exposure and current-activity blocks below retain their separately dated source vintages; updating WEO does not refresh those observations.

Other source references: IMF DataMapper growth series (current October vintage); IMF WEO April 2026 statistical appendix (Table F, fiscal years); IMF DataMapper, GDP per capita; CBSL National Accounts 2025; World Bank country classifications (FY27); SLTDA Monthly Arrivals, August 2026; CBSL External Sector Performance, December 2025; Sri Lanka Export Development Board; China NBS PMI, 30 Sep 2026; India MoSPI Q1 GDP via PIB; RBI MPC minutes, 19 Aug 2026. Not on this board yet: partner-level import values, INR and CNY exchange-rate series, lagged comparisons, and any link data for countries other than India and China.

The live desk

Open policy & legal: certified Acts, tax dates and unresolved commencement evidence →

Open fiscal & debt: budget execution, gross debt composition and source-basis notes →

Open rates & prices: CCPI/NCPI, funding and lending, bank AWPR and liquidity →

The desk combines live feeds, dated publisher releases, model estimates and analyst reads. Each block shows its source and data date so you can read it in context.

ML▊TERMINAL

Feeds: FX CONNECTING…

Generate report

--:--:-- SLST

TODAY FIRSTGDP and headline numbers first, then rupee, FX, reserves and analyst read

GDP nowcast · Q3 2026[MODEL · VINTAGE 24 SEP]

+4.6%

REAL GDP, Y/Y · BAND 3.6 – 5.6

Re-anchored 24 Sep on the latest official print, Q2 2026 +4.2% (DCS, 15 Sep 2026)
Previous vintage, 27 Aug: +5.5% (band 4.5 – 6.5) on the Q1 print of +5.1%; it stays on record and is scored against the Q3 print too
Confidence: LOW · model v0.1, five dated inputs

What the model is readingSIGNAL → PP

Input	Vintage input reading	As of	pp
Private-sector credit	+26.4% y/y banking system; frozen vintage input. The old 24.7% comparison was DBU total loans at end-June, not licensed-bank private credit	JUL 26	+0.5
Import demand	fuel imports +68.0% y/y; trade gap widening	JUL 26	+0.3
Electricity generation	54.56 GWh on 24 Sep, peak 2,747.5 MW	SEP 26	+0.1
Tourist arrivals	191,704 in Aug, -3.3% y/y; Sep tracking soft	AUG 26	-0.2
Policy tightening drag	+100bp May hike still feeding through	MAY 26	-0.3
Net adjustment to anchor			+0.4

Method: anchor-and-adjust, not a regression - the last official print available at publication is moved by dated leading reads, each capped at ±0.5pp. The 24 Sep vintage re-anchors on the Q2 print (+4.2%) and nets +0.4pp = +4.6%; the 27 Aug vintage (+5.5%) is kept, not rewritten. Contributions are analyst priors, not fitted coefficients. Sources: DCS Q2 2026 national accounts, 15 Sep · Q1 2026 · CBSL weekly economic indicators, 11 Sep 2026 (private credit +26.4% y/y Jul) · CBSL external sector, Jul 2026 · CBSL daily economic indicators, 24 Sep 2026 (electricity generation) · SLTDA arrivals. Depth: the nowcast anchor series (quarterly national accounts) runs back to Q1 2020 - 26 prints, mixed release vintages rather than a revision-harmonised current back-series; input history coverage varies. For example, stored Q2 2025 growth is the original 4.9%; the current Q2 2026 release revises it to 5.0%. The frozen nowcast is not refit to those revisions. The separate DBU-loans history now covers Aug2025-Jul2026; it is not private-sector credit. The model estimate and contributions are not official data.

Port of Colombo · Berthing board[SNAPSHOT]

Programme entries

SLPA programme ETAs 30 Oct-4 Nov; entries, not unique vessels

Planned container moves

16,909

planned discharge + load

Largest caller entry

MSC BERYL

2,916 planned moves

ETA	Vessel	Planned moves	LOA	Service
2026-10-30 22:00	MSC CAIRO IV	774	260M	CHEETAH
2026-10-31 14:00	MSS GRAPHENE	720	143M	MALE
2026-10-31 14:00	ASL PEONY	128	172M	TEX
2026-10-31 18:00	EVER ETHIC	1,127	335M	AGI W/B
2026-10-31 23:00	MSC DIYA F	450	148M	CC
2026-11-01 05:00	ORCHARD STAR	484	159M	CC
2026-11-01 07:00	NORTHERN PRACTICE	1,956	265M	AGI E/B
2026-11-01 12:00	ADAMASTOS	465	172M	KILIMA - W/B
2026-11-01 15:00	MSC MANASA F	1,012	155M	MALE
2026-11-01 20:00	KUMASI	410	196M	INDIAN OCEAN RELAY
2026-11-01 22:00	HAO BO 01	941	172M	UCV
2026-11-02 16:00	SOL PROGRESS	764	150M	CC/HAL
2026-11-02 18:00	SOL PRIME	362	172M	TRV/CGP
2026-11-02 18:00	MSC GLORY R	566	243M	KERALA SHUTTLE
2026-11-03 09:00	ONE THESEUS	1,500	304M	CIX-2
2026-11-03 14:00	MSC BERYL	2,916	366M	ADHOC(HIMALAYA EXPRESS)
2026-11-04 07:00	CMA CGM CLEVELAND	1,234	300M	KILIMA E/B
2026-11-04 08:00	DP WORLD JEBEL ALI	1,100	238M	AGI - W/B

Source: SLPA live programme, retrieved 31 Oct 2026 01:05 UTC. iTotal is planned discharge + load, not TEU or actual throughput. Closed/deleted and older programme-day rows excluded (two 2022-dated rows). Rows sit under their SLPA programme day; a row's ETA can precede the scheduled programme day, and MSC COLOMBO V's ETA field reads "EX: 1/A", so its row is placed at the listed ETB of 29 Oct 17:00. ETA is not confirmation of arrival or berth status. ETAs/programme may change.

Rupee board[LIVE]

USD / LKR332.39open feed

EUR / LKR371.03cross

GBP / LKR444.79cross

AUD / LKR233.94cross

JPY / LKR2.104cross

INR 100 / LKR350.00cross

Live feed: ExchangeRate-API open feed, refreshed daily · last update 2 Nov 2026 00:02 UTC. Official reference: CBSL daily indicative USD/LKR, each business day.

Policy & prices[DATED]

Overnight policy rate8.75%30 SEP

SDFR / SLFR corridor8.25 / 9.2530 SEP

CCPI inflation y/y8.3%30 OCT

Petrol 92, Rs / litre41401 OCT

Auto diesel, Rs / litre39201 OCT

Tea avg, Rs / kg1,203SEP NSA

Sources: CBSL policy review, 30 Sep 2026 (held; next review 20 Nov 2026) · CCPI, Oct 2026 · CPC monthly fuel revision, November revision reported by NewsFirst, 2 Nov and Daily Mirror: P92 Rs 424/litre (+Rs 10), auto diesel Rs 397/litre (+Rs 5), effective midnight 2 Nov; CPC price-history page unreachable at the 2 Nov 11:25 UTC check (upstream timeouts). October revision reported by Daily FT, 1 Oct and Daily Mirror, 30 Sep: P92 Rs 414/litre (+Rs 15), auto diesel Rs 392/litre (+Rs 10), effective 1 Oct; CPC official price history, checked 13 Oct 2026 13:39 UTC, confirmed the 1 October revision · Forbes & Walker Research: September national sale average Rs 1,202.74/kg, published 6 Oct 2026.

Data event logLAST_7

02 NOV 11:25CPC_FUELCPC fuel revision effective midnight 2 Nov: petrol 92 Rs 424/litre (+Rs 10), octane 95 Rs 490 (+Rs 15), auto diesel Rs 397/litre (+Rs 5), super diesel Rs 543 (+Rs 15); kerosene unchanged; Lanka IOC revised in line (NewsFirst, Daily Mirror, The Morning, Newswire; CPC historical-prices page unreachable at this check - upstream timeouts). Desk fuel figures restated; the revision was announced late 1 Nov and missed in this morning's refresh - correction logged.

02 NOV 01:16DAILY_OPENMonday refresh: FX 332.39 (2 Nov 00:02 UTC open feed). Brent January (new front month) settled $113.43 Friday, +$2.63 (+2.37%) d/d; December expired at $117.64; Monday intraday ~$111.7 (-1.5%, CNBC delayed). Gold 3,902.20 / silver 50.10 (01:05 UTC). SLPA re-pulled: 18 entries / 16,909 moves, ETAs 30 Oct-4 Nov, unchanged. No T-bill auction until Wed; 28 Oct register verified (91-day 9.34% +2bp). LEWM-38 expired 16:00 SLT 1 Nov, no successor on the DMC list at 06:40 SLT; emergency board retired. Met Dept tracking cyclonic storm Murasu in the Bay of Bengal. ml-history: OIL Sep 114.16, FX Sep 329.5 appended. Peers API ok (28 names, Fri 30 Oct close).

01 NOV 01:15DAILY_OPENSunday refresh: FX 332.30 (1 Nov 00:02 UTC open feed, carries Friday's fix; Friday spot closed 332.50/62 per EconomyNext). Brent December expired Friday at $117.64, +$2.76 (+2.40%) d/d, its highest since late April, after the reported Hormuz tanker strikes (Iran said four hit mines; Reuters/UKMTO confirmed one; Dow Jones via Morningstar; AP); the January contract stood at $113.43 per CNBC; no weekend settle. Gold 3,876.40 / silver 49.25 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC, unchanged from Friday. SLPA programme: 18 entries / 16,909 planned moves, ETAs 30 Oct-4 Nov (revised intra-day from 13,231 on the live SLPA pull). LEWM-38: level-1 yellow only for Kandy and Kegalle, valid to 16:00 SLT today.

31 OCT 01:15DAILY_OPENSaturday refresh: FX 332.29 (31 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed, carries Friday's session; Friday spot closed 332.50/62 per EconomyNext). Brent December settled $117.64 on 30 Oct, +$2.76 (+2.40%) d/d and +13.63% in October (Dow Jones via Morningstar); Iran said four tankers struck mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz (AP); Reuters/UKMTO confirmed one limpet-mine strike. Gold 3,876.40 / silver 49.25 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC (from 4,002.40 / 51.52). SLPA programme: 18 entries / 14,081 planned moves, ETAs 28 Oct-2 Nov, largest NORTHERN PRACTICE 1,956 (ETA 1 Nov 07:00); two 2022-dated rows excluded; MSC COLOMBO V ETA field "EX: 1/A", placed at ETB 29 Oct 17:00. CBSL September external sector release out: record exports $1,377m; reserves revised to $6.867bn end-Sep (was $6.851bn from the 9 Oct weekly indicators); trade desk moved to the Sep print. CBSL weekly indicators: AWPR 11.23% (+30bp); power desk refreshed to 29 Oct generation, coal back in the mix. Construction PMI Sep 57.8 appended to history. CBSL daily price report 30 Oct verified (via the cloud browser; the desk environment is still 403'd): samba Rs 240 flat; largest listed rise green chilli +50.0% Pettah retail; largest listed fall lime -8.5% Dambulla retail. Irrigation 30 Oct update: 47.6% gross, 12 spilling, Giants Tank reading normal. SLTDA weekly page still carries 1-25 Oct 136,093 / YTD 1,829,772. Landslide: LEWM-37 yellow in 4 districts, valid to 16:00 SLT today; expiry pass scheduled after. Peers API ok (28 names, Fri 30 Oct close).

30 OCT 01:12DAILY_OPENFriday refresh: FX 332.17 (30 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; Thursday spot closed 332.55/65 1-week per EconomyNext). Brent December settled $114.88 on 29 Oct, -$0.44 (-0.38%) d/d (Dow Jones via Morningstar). Gold 4,002.40 / silver 51.52 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC. SLPA programme: 15 entries / 11,155 planned moves, ETAs 27-31 Oct, largest MSC VIRGINIA 2,196 (ETA 28 Oct 18:00); two 2022-dated rows excluded, four 1 Nov rows outside the window; MSC COLOMBO V ETA field "EX 1/A", placed at ETB 29 Oct 14:00. Thursday CSE close: ASPI 20,267.15 (+1.49%), S&P SL20 5,764.20 (+1.26%), turnover Rs 2.27bn (EconomyNext). T-bills: Phase II raised Rs 2.5bn on 29 Oct; aggregate Rs 88.98bn from the 28 Oct auction (PDMO press releases). NBRO 36th landslide bulletin: amber Level 2 continues for six Ratnapura DSDs, yellow elsewhere with downgrades in Kalutara, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya, no red, valid to 16:00 SLT 30 Oct - production outlook card corrected, it had wrongly said no amber. CBSL daily price report 29 Oct unverified (site 403 from the desk environment).

29 OCT 01:12DAILY_OPENThursday refresh: FX 332.16 (29 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; Wednesday spot closed 332.52/60 per EconomyNext). Brent December settled $115.32 on 28 Oct, +$1.44 (+1.26%) d/d (Dow Jones via Morningstar). Gold 4,044.30 / silver 53.83 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC. SLPA programme: 14 entries / 13,101 planned moves, ETAs 26-30 Oct, largest EVER ETHIC 2,200 (30 Oct); two malformed rows excluded (ADONIS 404, ETA field "EX 3MS"; MSC COLOMBO V 850, ETA "EX CICT"). Wednesday CSE close: ASPI 19,970.22 (+1.41%), S&P SL20 5,699.30 (+1.55%), turnover Rs 2.17bn (EconomyNext). Irrigation: no 29 Oct update at refresh time; the 28 Oct dataset stands (47.4% gross, 16 spilling). T-bill register: 28 Oct result live (9.34% / 9.44% / 9.95%; Rs86.48bn of Rs100bn, PDMO via EconomyNext); the official treasury.gov.lk result page remains unreachable from the desk environment. CBSL daily price report 28 Oct unverified (site 403 from the desk environment); the 27 Oct report stands. Met Dept 05:30 SLT 29 Oct forecast: deep Bay of Bengal fishing/naval advisory withdrawn; Arnab weakened to a deep depression after crossing the AP coast, influence eases during today. Schools reopened islandwide 28 Oct (Hiru News, Esana). Landslide: LEWM-28-10-2026-1600-35 remains the latest bulletin at refresh (amber in 5 districts, no red; valid to 16:00 SLT 29 Oct).

28 OCT 01:15DAILY_OPENWednesday refresh: FX 332.20 (28 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; Tuesday spot closed 332.40/50 per EconomyNext, weaker from Monday's 332.25/35). Brent December settled $113.88 on 27 Oct, -$1.93 (-1.67%) d/d, largest one-day fall since 5 Oct (Dow Jones via Morningstar; financialjuice corroborates). Gold 4,059.60 / silver 54.43 open-feed quotes 01:03 UTC. SLPA programme: 16 entries / 17,705 planned moves, days 27-30 Oct, largest MSC VIRGINIA 2,352 (28 Oct); two malformed rows excluded (ADONIS 411, ETA field "EX: 3MS"; MSC COLOMBO V 805, ETA "2026-10-29 EX"). Tuesday CSE close: ASPI 19,692.67 (+0.27%), S&P SL20 5,612.31 (+0.19%), turnover Rs 849m, snapping a six-session decline (EconomyNext). Irrigation 27 Oct update: 47.5% gross across 74 tanks, 21 spilling; 69 of 74 readings dated 27 Oct, 5 #REF! date cells; Giants Tank 23,951 ac-ft (77.3%); Kandy range sum 103.4% of nominal capacity as published. T-bill register: Rs 100bn auction today 28 Oct (Treasury announcement), result not yet published; 21 Oct result stands. CBSL daily price report 27 Oct: samba Rs 240 flat; largest listed rise carrot +49.2% Dambulla retail; largest listed fall tomato -7.2% Dambulla retail. Cyclone Arnab began its Andhra landfall process ~1:30am IST 28 Oct near Narsapur (The Hindu); Met Dept expects SL influence to ease from 28 Oct (Newswire, 27 Oct). Schools resume today except weather-affected exam centres. Red landslide warning LEWM-27-10-2026-1600-34 valid to 16:00 SLT today; no new lightning advisory. Peers API ok (28 names, Tue 27 Oct close). No all clear.

27 OCT 01:15DAILY_OPENTuesday refresh: FX 332.04 (27 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; Monday spot closed 332.25/35 per EconomyNext, weaker from Friday's 332.10/20). Brent December settled $115.81 on 26 Oct, -$0.91 (-0.78%) d/d (Dow Jones via Morningstar; CNBC corroborates). Gold 4,012.70 / silver 54.12 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC. SLPA programme: 16 entries / 17,374 planned moves, days 25-29 Oct, largest EVER ETHIC 3,000 (28 Oct); one malformed duplicate ADONIS row (411 moves, ETA field "EX: 3MS") excluded from the board. Monday CSE close: ASPI 19,640.56 (-0.23%), S&P SL20 5,601.87 (-0.21%), turnover Rs 666m, sixth straight decline (EconomyNext). SLTDA weekly 1-25 Oct: 136,093 arrivals, YTD 1,829,772. Irrigation 26 Oct update: 46.4% gross across 74 tanks, 16 spilling; Giants Tank anomaly resolved at source (22,579 ac-ft, 72.9%); Kandy range sum 100.1% of nominal capacity as published. PDMO rejected all bids at the 23 Oct Domestic Dollar Bond auction ($100m, option to $300m; notice gives no reason). Sep exports $1.38bn +21.66% y/y (EDB); CBSL Sep external-sector release not yet out - trade-balance tile stays on the Aug CBSL basis (publisher lag, not a freshness failure). CBSL daily price report 26 Oct: samba Rs 240 flat; largest listed rise green chilli +50.0% Pettah retail; largest listed fall pumpkin -9.3% Dambulla retail. Peers API ok (28 names, Mon 26 Oct close). No all clear.

26 OCT 01:12DAILY_OPENMonday refresh: FX 332.17 (26 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed, first fix of the week; Friday spot closed 332.10/20 per EconomyNext). Brent December 23 Oct settle $116.72 stands (no newer settle yet). Gold 3,984.00 / silver 53.99 open-feed quotes 01:05 UTC. SLPA programme restated: 21 entries / 21,187 planned moves, days 25-28 Oct, largest EVER ETHIC 3,000. Irrigation 25 Oct update: 44.7% gross storage across 74 tanks, 11 spilling; Giants Tank 25 Oct reading of 20 ac-ft looks like a publisher entry error, flagged. SLTDA weekly page still carries 1-22 Oct 119,805 / YTD 1,813,484. Peers API ok (28 names, Fri 23 Oct close). CBSL tenders 403 and PDMO timeout persist. No all clear.

25 OCT 01:12DAILY_OPENBounded Sunday refresh: FX open feed rolled its check stamp to 25 Oct 00:02 UTC, still carrying the 23 Oct fix 332.01 (weekend carry, not a fresh market quote). Brent 23 Oct settle $116.72 stands. Gold 3,996.90 / silver 54.05 open-feed quotes 01:04 UTC, unchanged d/d. SLPA programme unchanged since the 24 Oct retrieval: 13 entries / 12,516 planned moves, days 24-27 Oct, largest EVER URBAN 2,265. SLTDA weekly page updated: arrivals 1-22 Oct 119,805, YTD 1,813,484 (desk restated from 1-18 Oct 97,825 / 1,791,504). Irrigation Dept daily sheet now carries a 24 Oct update: 74 major-tank rows, reading dates 22-24 Oct, no #REF! errors, Kandy range sum back under capacity (98.8%); desk-calculated gross aggregate 45.2% now published, replacing the withheld 14 Oct comparison; 14 tanks spilling. No new dated primary releases seen on EconomyNext through 24 Oct.

24 OCT 13:39MORNING_CHECKVancouver bounded check: SLPA programme rolled since the 01:06 retrieval - now 13 entries / 12,516 planned moves, days 24-27 Oct, largest EVER URBAN 2,265 (ETA now 25 Oct 06:00). PARATY, SERENE INGRID and DP WORLD JEDDAH off the board; ADONIS, MSC TINA and MSC CLEMENTINA F added; SANTA LOUKIA revised 874 to 87; MSC NAOMI consolidated to one 740-move EX CICT entry. FX open feed rolled its check stamp to 24 Oct 00:02 UTC, still carrying the 23 Oct value 332.01 (weekend, no new fix). Gold 3,996.90 / silver 54.05 open-feed quotes 13:38 UTC. Brent 23 Oct settle $116.72 stands (weekend); CSE closed, Friday close stands. No all clear.

24 OCT 01:10DAILY_OPENBounded Saturday refresh: FX unchanged at 332.01 (23 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; weekend, no new fix; Friday spot closed 332.10/20 per EconomyNext). Brent December settled $116.72 on 23 Oct, +3.14% d/d (+$3.55), a five-month high, +6.24% w/w (Dow Jones via Morningstar; CBSL weekly indicators corroborate the five-month high). Gold 3,996.90 / silver 54.05 open-feed quotes 01:07 UTC; Dow Jones COMEX week closes: gold $3,991.10 (-4.05% w/w), silver $53.71 (-5.76% w/w). SLPA programme: 15 entries / 13,377 planned moves, days 23-26 Oct, largest EVER URBAN 2,200. Friday closes from the CSE official feed: ASPI -0.17% to 19,684.91, S&P SL20 -0.09% to 5,613.63, turnover Rs 825m, 13,079 trades; week -2.48% / -2.18% (CBSL weekly). CBSL daily price report 23 Oct: samba Rs 240 flat; largest listed fall green chilli -25.0% Pettah retail; largest listed rise lime +12.4% Dambulla retail. CBSL weekly indicators 23 Oct: 22 Oct generation 55.24 GWh (hydro 54.6%, oil 27.1%, coal 7.2%); AWPR 10.93% (-18bp w/w); NCPI Sep 8.1% unchanged. WMS 23 Oct: gross storage 71%, power stations 80%. Irrigation 23 Oct update still unreconciled (Kandy range 101.9% of capacity, five #REF date errors); 14 Oct comparison retained. T-bill register: 21 Oct result stands; next weekly auction expected 28 Oct, announcement not yet verified. CSE peer panel: 28 stocks at 23 Oct close.

23 OCT 01:10DAILY_OPENBounded Friday refresh: FX 332.01 (23 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed). Brent December settled $113.17 on 22 Oct, +4.00% d/d (+$4.35), Dow Jones settle report via Morningstar. Gold 4,023.20 / silver 54.48 provider quotes 01:03 UTC. SLPA programme: 14 entries / 15,510 planned moves, days 22-25 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 2,873. Thursday closes: ASPI -1.05% to 19,717.92 (2026 low), S&P SL20 -0.68% to 5,618.48, turnover Rs 1.10bn (EconomyNext). Phase II tap: Rs 2.282bn sold at 9.32/9.44/9.95, week total Rs 82.893bn (EconomyNext citing PDMO; primary release not yet posted). CSE peer panel: 28 stocks at 22 Oct close.

22 OCT 06:45DAILY_OPENBounded Thursday refresh: FX 331.71 (22 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed). PDMO 21 Oct auction: 91-day 9.32% (+2bp), 182-day 9.44% and 364-day 9.95% unchanged; Rs 80.611bn accepted of Rs 100bn offered, bids Rs 186.002bn; settlement 23 Oct (PDMO result PDF; EconomyNext's 9.2 body figure for the 91-day is wrong vs PDMO 9.32). Sep NCPI 8.1% y/y steady at a 40-month high, index 224.2 vs 223.9; food 6.9%, non-food 9.1% (DCS via EconomyNext). Brent December settled 108.82 on 21 Oct, +0.03% d/d (Reuters/Dow Jones settle reports). Gold 4,115.50 / silver 57.28 provider quotes 01:06 UTC. SLPA programme: 18 entries / 19,333 planned moves 21-24 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,701. Wednesday closes: ASPI -0.28% to 19,927.30, S&P SL20 -0.43% to 5,656.91, turnover Rs 1.5bn (EconomyNext). CSE 28 peers at 21 Oct close.

22 OCT 02:52DATA_FIXUser audit caught two stale items: tea board held the August national sale average and both hero kickers read September 2026. September NSA Rs 1,202.74/kg (up Rs 28.28 m/m), published 6 Oct, verified at source via Daily FT citing Forbes & Walker Research / Sri Lanka Tea Board. Tiles, exhibits, sources, scenario and methodology text updated; kickers now October 2026. Recurrence cause: tea and the kicker are static strings outside the monthly history checklist; both added to the refresh procedure.

21 OCT 06:45DAILY_OPENBounded Wednesday refresh: FX 331.60 (21 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed). Brent December settled 108.79 on 20 Oct, -0.69% d/d, latest verified settle (Xinhua/MarketWatch). Gold 4,118.70 / silver 57.81 provider quotes 01:04 UTC. SLPA programme: 16 entries / 17,744 planned moves 20-22 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,501. Tuesday closes: ASPI -0.38% to 19,983.78; rupee spot flat 331.60/70, bond yields steady-to-lower (EconomyNext). T-bill auction due 21 Oct; board holds 14 Oct results. CSE 28 peers at 20 Oct close.

21 OCT 06:45DATA_FIXFresh source recheck before deploy: SLPA 16 programme entries / 17,744 planned moves 20-22 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,501. Gold 4,118.70 / silver 57.81 provider quotes 01:04 UTC. Brent 20 Oct settle 108.79 cross-checked Xinhua + MarketWatch + TokenPost.

20 OCT 06:45DAILY_OPENBounded Tuesday refresh: FX 331.14 (20 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed). Brent December settled 109.55 on 19 Oct, -0.28% d/d, latest verified settle (Dow Jones/WSJ). Gold 4,127.20 / silver 56.83 provider quotes 01:05 UTC. SLPA programme unchanged: 11 entries / 12,817 planned moves 20-22 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,501. SLTDA weekly 1-18 Oct: 97,825 arrivals, YTD 1,791,504. CBSL Sep PMIs (15 Oct): manufacturing 53.0, services 60.5. CBSL daily price report 19 Oct: samba Rs 240 flat; tomato +37.0% Dambulla retail largest listed rise. CSE 28 peers at 19 Oct close.

19 OCT 18:45DATA_FIXFresh source recheck before deploy: SLPA 11 programme entries / 12,817 planned moves 20-22 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,501. Gold 4146.60 / silver 57.39 provider quotes 18:43 UTC. WMS 19 Oct PDF 69.0% gross (display 69) / 78.4% power (display 78). Irrigation 19 Oct aggregate withheld: published ranges exceed gross capacity, mixed reading dates and five #REF date errors; 14 Oct comparison retained. News-ticker JSON added for landing. CBSL direct check remains 403; no all clear.

19 OCT 06:45DAILY_OPENBounded Monday refresh: FX 330.89, 19 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; gold 4176.80 / silver 57.61 provider quotes 01:04 UTC. Brent December remains 16 Oct 109.86, +3.72%, latest verified settle. SLPA 12 programme entries / 15,081 planned moves 19-21 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,800. CSE 28 at 16 Oct close. PDMO 14 Oct result PDF loaded and rechecked; Phase II allocations unverified. Irrigation 18 Oct update has five #REF date errors and mixed reading dates, aggregate under review; WMS 16 Oct. Health TLS expired; CBSL 403. Full primary/history audit open; no all clear.

18 OCT 19:11MORNING_CHECKVancouver bounded check: FX 331.07 and cross rates recompute; gold 4166.10 / silver 57.12 provider quotes 13:39 UTC; CSE 28 at 16 Oct close. SLPA programme changed since Colombo refresh: 20 entries / 22,910 planned moves 18-21 Oct, largest CMA CGM PARATY 3,800; not actual throughput. PDMO 14 Oct result and Treasury/Health/CEB/SLPA boards rechecked; CBSL 16 Oct weekly/tenders still 403; some publisher pages 403/429. No all clear.

18 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Sunday refresh: FX 331.07, 18 Oct 00:02 UTC open feed; gold 4166.10 / silver 57.12 provider quotes 01:04 UTC. Brent December remains 16 Oct 109.86, +3.72%, latest settle before weekend. SLPA 10 programme entries / 12,525 planned moves 18-20 Oct. CSE 28 at 16 Oct close. PDMO 14 Oct result PDF loaded and rechecked; Phase II allocations unverified. Irrigation 17 Oct update has five #REF date errors, aggregate under review; WMS 16 Oct. Full primary/history audit open; no all clear.

17 OCT 19:17BOUNDED_UPDATEPower caveat updated: transmission system reported fully restored; islandwide customer supply expected normal soon, not confirmed universal. Water pumping normal again. Exact cause unconfirmed. 15 Oct measured generation unchanged; full primary/history audit open, no all clear.

17 OCT 19:10MORNING_CHECKBounded Vancouver check: FX 331.07 unchanged; gold 4166.10 / silver 57.12 provider quotes 13:39 UTC; CSE 28 at 16 Oct close. SLPA programme 19 entries / 22,316 planned moves, not actual throughput. Power desk adds separately sourced 17 Oct outage status caveat; 15 Oct measured generation unchanged. Full restoration/cause unverified; full primary/history audit open, no all clear.

17 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Saturday refresh: FX 331.07, 17 Oct open feed; December Brent 16 Oct 109.86, +3.72% reported Dow Jones/CNBC; gold 4166.10, silver 57.12 provider quotes 01:03 UTC. SLPA 9 programme entries / 11,569 planned moves. SLTDA 1-15 Oct 77,868 arrivals, YTD 1,771,547. CBSL 16 Oct weekly: Sep PMI 53.0 manufacturing / 60.5 services, Sep travel receipts 185.6m / Jan-Sep 2245.2m, power 15 Oct 54.41 GWh. Frozen forecast ranges under assumptions review after renewed energy-route disruption. Full primary/history audit open; PDMO direct recheck 502, procurement partial, no all clear.

16 OCT 19:15MORNING_CHECKVancouver bounded check: all 28 CSE fallback records reconciled to 16 Oct close; WMS 16 Oct PDF 66.3% gross (display 66), 75.6% power stations (display 76), mixed 15-16 Oct readings. Irrigation 16 Oct corrects Ambalan Oya typo, but aggregate under review; 14 Oct comparison dated. CBSL 16 Oct food report reconciled: listed Pettah beans +20.0%, Dambulla lime -21.7%; all ten movers and displayed staples checked. Weekly list still 9 Oct. Full primary/history audit remains open.

16 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Friday refresh: FX 330.98 (16 Oct 00:02 UTC); December Brent 15 Oct $105.92 / -0.13% reported by Dow Jones/Xinhua; gold $4,156.70 / silver $57.35 provider quotes 01:03 UTC. SLPA 13 programme entries / 12,276 planned moves. CSE 15 Oct close 28/28. CBSL latest food 15 Oct / weekly 9 Oct unchanged; WMS 15 Oct 65% gross / 75% power. Irrigation 15 Oct aggregate withheld for material source anomaly. PDMO 14 Oct result retained, settlement 16 Oct, subsequent Phase II unverified. Wider primary/history audit remains open; no all clear.

15 OCT 19:20HYDRO_CHECKWMS official 15 Oct PDF: gross-total storage 65.3% (display 65), power-station storage 74.9% (display 75), mixed 12-15 Oct readings. Separately, Irrigation 15 Oct aggregate remains withheld for Ambalan Oya source anomaly. Full Met Dept image loaded and visually checked: 14 Oct map, max 127.3mm at Kekirawa. Wider primary/history audit remains open.

15 OCT 19:20SOURCE_CHECKCBSL 15 Oct food prices reconciled from original PDF: listed retail movers lime +22.1% Dambulla, beans -16.7% Pettah; white kekulu Rs195, red dhal Rs253. Irrigation 15 Oct aggregate withheld after Ambalan Oya source anomaly (111,875 ac-ft vs 35,914 capacity); 14 Oct comparison retained and visibly dated. Latest listed spilling count 7; Senanayaka 16.5%. Weekly indicators still 9 Oct. Wider audit remains open.

15 OCT 19:10MORNING_CHECKVancouver bounded recheck: CSE 28 stocks at 15 Oct close; SLPA 22 programme entries / 18,451 planned moves; gold 4,160.70 / silver 56.96 provider quotes 13:39 UTC. FX 331.10 unchanged. Phase II bill subscription deadline has passed; subsequent allocations not verified. Full primary-source/history audit remains open.

15 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Thursday refresh: FX 331.10 (15 Oct 00:02 UTC); December ICE Brent 14 Oct $106.06, +0.35%, reported by Dow Jones/Xinhua; gold $4,149.60 and silver $56.42 provider quotes at 01:03 UTC. SLPA 24 programme entries / 23,457 planned moves; CSE 14 Oct close, 28/28. Food 14 Oct selected retail prices recomputed. WMS 14 Oct report gross total 64%, power stations 74%; Irrigation 14 Oct update 38.8%, mixed reading dates. PDMO 14 Oct result rechecked: 9.30% / 9.44% / 9.95%, Rs66.126bn accepted; Phase II closes 15 Oct 15:00. Procurement is partial; newer CEB/SLPA attachments and CPC archive remain unverified. Full primary-source and history audit remains open.

14 OCT 19:10MORNING_CHECKVancouver bounded recheck: PDMO 14 Oct result 9.30/9.44/9.95%, Rs 66.126bn accepted; CSE 28 stocks at 14 Oct close; SLPA 24 programme entries / 23,457 planned moves. FX unchanged 330.80; gold/silver fallbacks 13:39 UTC. Full primary/history audit still open.

14 OCT 06:35DAILY_OPENBounded Wednesday refresh: FX 330.80 (14 Oct 00:02 UTC); December ICE Brent 13 Oct 105.69 / -0.90% reported via Xinhua; gold 4,155.20 / silver 59.16 provider quotes 01:03 UTC. SLPA 23 programme entries / 21,340 planned moves. CSE 13 Oct close. SLTDA 1-11 Oct 57,340 arrivals, YTD 1,751,019. PDMO 14 Oct Rs 90bn offer. Food 13 Oct prices and listed movers recomputed from CBSL PDF. Derived reports reconciled to existing 4.6% frozen nowcast, static rupee gauge 47/100 and CPC primary fuel confirmation. Full primary/history audit remains open.

13 OCT 19:09PRIMARY_FIXVancouver audit: CPC official history now confirms 1 Oct petrol 92 Rs 414/litre and auto diesel Rs 392/litre. SLPA programme refreshed: 23 entries / 21,340 planned moves, retrieved 13:39 UTC. Full primary/history audit remains open.

13 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Tuesday refresh: FX 330.78 (feed updated 12 Oct 23:57 UTC); Brent 12 Oct 106.65 / +1.84% reported; gold 4,158.10 / silver 59.98 provider quote 13 Oct 01:03 UTC. SLPA 23 programme entries / 23,061 planned moves. CSE 12 Oct close. Full primary/history audit remains open.

12 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded Monday refresh: FX 330.55 (12 Oct open feed); gold $4,212.60, silver $61.40, provider quote 01:03 UTC. Brent remains 9 Oct $104.72/+0.42% reported. SLPA 25 programme entries/26,689 planned moves. CSE 9 Oct close. Full primary/history audit remains open; no all-clear.

11 OCT 06:35DAILY_OPENBounded Sunday refresh: FX330.72 (11Oct open feed), Brent remains Friday9Oct $104.72/+0.42% reported; SLPA20active programme entries/25,970plannedmoves. SLTDA1-8Oct40,942arrivals,YTD1,734,621; Sep monthly confirms158,557. CSE9Oct close. Wider primary/history audit remains open.

10 OCT 06:40DAILY_OPENBounded refresh: CBSL 30 Oct reports Sep reserves $6.867bn and remittances $734m; Aug banking-system credit +24.5% y/y. FX330.72, Brent9Oct104.72 +0.42% reported, SLPA22 entries/27,270 planned moves. Full-number audit and six-bank Q2 remain open.

09 OCT 09:20DAILY_OPENBounded refresh: FX 330.50 (9 Oct open feed); SLPA 27 programme entries, 28,857 planned moves (03:49 UTC); CSE 8 Oct close. Food latest inspected8Oct; labourQ2 from CBSL2Oct. Brent8Oct104.28 is a Dow Jones report, not direct ICE verification. Six-bankQ2, procurement and full number audit remain open. No all-clear.

08 OCT 06:43CBSL_REVISEDEnd-Aug reserves revised to $6.929bn; +$329m / +5.0% vs end-Jul $6.600bn. September net FX absorption $64m. Rupee-pressure formula unchanged; current inputs recompute to 26/100. Q1 banking ratios are explicitly historical while Q2 issuer reconciliation is open.

08 OCT 06:38DAILY_OPENFX 330.96 (8 Oct open feed); SLPA 25 current entries, 29,890 planned moves; CSE 7 Oct close. PDMO 7 Oct: 9.26% / 9.44% / 9.95%, Rs 80bn sold. Brent latest verified settle remains 6 Oct. Food latest listed report is 7 Oct. Audit remains open: CBSL reserve revisions and banking-sector Q2 reconciliation; procurement partial.

07 OCT 18:52CBSL_PRICESFood updated to 7 Oct, changes vs 6 Oct: listed Pettah cabbage +12.5%; Dambulla pumpkin -13.3%; Pettah eggs Rs 34 (+3.0%). Mahaweli system 62%, 3,426 of 5,489 mcm on 7 Oct; Kotmale 83%, Randenigala 72%. Publisher dates preserved on the other boards.

07 OCT 06:39DAILY_OPENFX 330.77 (7 Oct open feed); Brent December $100.58, +0.26% d/d (6 Oct); SLPA 22 current entries, 23,048 planned moves, largest EVER LIBRA (2,324); CSE 6 Oct close. SLTDA: Sep 158,557, -0.3% y/y; Oct 1-4 23,349. Food and Mahaweli remain dated 6 Oct; newer morning reports not yet posted at this check.

06 OCTCBSL_PRICESFood prices updated to 6 Oct; changes versus 5 Oct (CBSL daily report). Mahaweli reservoirs 62% on 6 Oct (3,412 of 5,489 mcm).

06 OCT 06:35DAILY_OPENFX 330.44 (6 Oct open feed, from 330.68); gold $4,147.60, silver $61.23 (open feed); SLPA (re-read 13:20 UTC) 22 current entries, 23,048 planned moves, largest EVER LIBRA (2,324); Brent unchanged, last settle December $102.25 on 2 Oct. Older boards retain their publisher dates.

05 OCT 06:34DAILY_OPENFX 330.68 (5 Oct feed); Brent unchanged, last settle December $102.25 on 2 Oct (Monday morning Colombo, no new settle since Fri); SLPA 24 current entries, 27,530 planned moves, largest MSC JOHANNESBURG V (3,694); CSE 2 Oct close (weekend). Older boards retain their publisher dates.

04 OCT 06:34DAILY_OPENFX 330.41 (4 Oct feed); Brent unchanged, last settle December $102.25 on 2 Oct (weekend, no new settle); SLPA 24 current entries, 29,196 planned moves, largest MSC JOHANNESBURG V (3,694); CSE 2 Oct close (weekend). Older boards retain their publisher dates.

03 OCT 06:34DAILY_OPENFX 330.41 (3 Oct feed); Brent December $102.25, -0.06% d/d (2 Oct); SLPA 19 current entries, 14,686 planned moves, largest TS KEELUNG (1,992); CSE 2 Oct close. Older boards retain their publisher dates.

02 OCT 06:34DAILY_OPENFX 330.40 (2 Oct feed); Brent December $102.31, +4.37% d/d (1 Oct); SLPA 30 current entries, 30,378 planned moves, largest MSC SURABAYA VIII (3,402); CSE 1 Oct close. Older boards retain their publisher dates.

01 OCT 06:34DAILY_OPENFX 330.38 (1 Oct feed); SLPA 28 current entries, 26,949 planned moves; CSE 30 Sep close. Older boards retain their publisher dates.

30 SEPCBSL_EXTAugust current account +$133.4m; merchandise exports $1,240.3m, imports $1,913.8m, gap $673.5m.

30 SEPPDMO_TBILL9.25% / 9.41% / 9.95%; Rs 80bn accepted, official PDMO result.

30 OCTDCS_CCPIOctober CCPI 8.3% y/y, up from 8.0% in September; index 209.9, up 0.8 points. DCS release, 30 Oct 2026.

30 SEPPOLICY_CCPIOPR held at 8.75%; September CCPI 8.0% y/y, index 209.1. CBSL and DCS releases.

30 SEP 00:02ZOPEN_FXUSD/LKR 330.63, daily open feed (30 Sep); browser feed continues to update.

29 SEPBRENTBrent settled $102.59/bbl, -2.6% d/d versus 28 Sep $105.28 (Reuters-attributed via Mint).

28 SEPBRENTBrent settled $105.28/bbl, +0.92% d/d versus 25 Sep (Reuters).

30 SEP 06:34SLPA_BERTH21 current programme entries, 24,401 planned moves; largest EVER LIBRA (3,000). Two historical rows excluded.

29 SEP 06:35SLPA_BERTH21 current programme entries, 28,563 planned moves; largest MSC SURABAYA VIII (3,200). Two historical rows excluded.

28 SEPSLTDA_ARRIVALS143,623 arrivals 1-27 Sep; YTD 1,678,745 (SLTDA weekly report).

29 SEPCBSL_PRICESFood prices updated to 29 Sep; changes versus Mon 28 Sep (CBSL daily report).

28 SEPCBSL_PRICESFood prices updated to 28 Sep; changes versus Fri 25 Sep (CBSL daily report).

28 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 330.65, open daily feed

28 SEP 06:03SLPA_BERTH23 programme entries, 25,497 planned moves; largest EVER LIBRA (3,000). Historical rows excluded.

25 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent $104.32, -2.14% d/d (Reuters close)

25 SEPCBSL_WEIWeekly indicators: AWPR 10.94%; latest generation 24 Sep

25 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 329.92, daily feed close

25 SEP 19:40SLPA_BERTH21 programme entries, 25,025 TEU; largest MSC JOANNA (2,770)

24 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 106.60, +3.41% d/d (Thursday settlement), highest close since 15 Sep

24 SEPSLTDA_ARRIVALS107,093 arrivals 1-20 Sep; YTD 1,642,215; India 32,536

24 SEP 06:34SLPA_BERTH23 vessels, 27,908 TEU moves on programme; largest MSC PARIS (3,673)

23 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 103.08, +3.86% d/d (Wednesday settlement), back above $100

23 SEPPDMO_TBILL91d 9.20% (+2bp), 182d 9.37% (+1bp), 364d 9.93% (+5bp); Rs 60bn sold

23 SEP 06:35SLPA_BERTH18 on the board (23.1k TEU); MSC PARIS largest at 3,673 TEU; 5 awaiting berth slots

22 SEPFITCH_RATINGFitch upgrades Sri Lanka long-term IDRs to B- from CCC+, outlook stable (Fitch statement via LBO)

22 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 99.25, -1.09% d/d (Tuesday settlement), back below $100

22 SEP 06:34SLPA_BERTH19 on the board (19.8k TEU); MSC PARIS largest at 2,578 TEU; 6 awaiting berth slots

22 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 330.64, daily feed close

21 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 100.34, -3.40% d/d (Monday settlement)

21 SEP 06:40SLPA_BERTH24 on the board (22.9k TEU); MSC PARIS largest at 3,100 TEU; 11 awaiting berth slots

21 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 330.10, daily feed close

20 SEP 06:34SLPA_BERTH24 on the board (22.1k TEU); MSC GIOVANNA VII largest at 2,300 TEU; 10 awaiting berth slots

20 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 331.27, daily feed close

19 SEP 06:34SLPA_BERTH25 on the board (21.0k TEU); MSC GLORY R largest at 2,507 TEU; 11 awaiting berth slots

18 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 103.87, -0.91% d/d (Friday settlement)

19 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 331.37, daily feed close

18 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 331.88, daily feed close

17 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 104.82, -0.95% d/d (Reuters market report)

18 SEP 06:35SLPA_BERTH21 on the board (18.1k TEU); MSC GLORY R largest at 2,468 TEU; 6 awaiting berth slots

17 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 331.02, daily feed close

16 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 105.83, -2.7% d/d (market close)

17 SEP 06:35SLPA_BERTH35 on the board (31.9k TEU); MSC GLORY R largest at 2,239 TEU; 21 awaiting berth slots

16 SEPPDMO_TBILL91d 9.18% (+15bp), 182d 9.36% (+12bp), 364d 9.88% (+11bp); full Rs 70bn accepted

15 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 328.58, daily feed close

15 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 106.93, +1.19% d/d (Trading Economics)

15 SEP 06:45SLPA_BERTH34 on the board (34.1k TEU); CMA CGM AMERIGO VESPUCCI (1,822 TEU) berths 11:00 today; 22 awaiting berth slots

14 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 328.36, daily feed close

14 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 107.66, TE quote 14 Sep, +2.9% vs the desk’s 13 Sep snapshot (Trading Economics)

14 SEP 06:40SLPA_BERTH36 on the board (38.5k TEU); CMA CGM SAIGON (1,300 TEU) berths 09:00 today; 23 awaiting berth slots

13 SEP 00:02ZFX_SYNCUSD/LKR 328.20, daily feed close

13 SEPCMDTY_BRENTBrent 104.61, TE quote 13 Sep - Friday close, -3.3% vs Thursday's $108 (Trading Economics)

13 SEP 06:45SLPA_BERTH32 on the board (36.7k TEU); EVER URBAN (2,059 TEU) berths 13:00 today; 21 awaiting berth slots

Every line is dated by its publisher. The full source register, with links, is in §09 Method.

What “realtime” means here[NOTE]

Sri Lanka publishes no streaming macro API; the CSE peer map uses its public market data endpoints. So the desk is honest about cadence: the rupee board refreshes live in your browser, the port board is restated whenever the SLPA programme changes, and policy, prices and arrivals move on their publishers’ calendars. The freshness tag on each block tells you which is which - and the AIS map below is genuinely live. The nowcast, the rupee gauge and the desk read are models built on these dated inputs, and are labelled as such.

On the wire · dated eventsHISTORICAL + UPCOMING · CHECKED 2 NOV

02 NOVCPC_FUELFuel revision effective midnight: petrol 92 Rs 424/litre (+Rs 10), auto diesel Rs 397/litre (+Rs 5), octane 95 Rs 490, super diesel Rs 543; kerosene unchanged; Lanka IOC in line (NewsFirst/Daily Mirror; CPC page unreachable at check)

02 NOVDAILY_OPENMonday refresh: FX open-feed fix 332.39 (2 Nov 00:02 UTC), from 332.30. Brent rolls to the January contract: Friday settle $113.43, +$2.63 (+2.37%) d/d (CNBC/Dow Jones); December expired at $117.64 and the $4.21 gap is the roll, not a market move; January near $111.7, -1.5% in early Monday trade (CNBC delayed, 01:49 GMT); OPEC+ holds December output targets. Gold $3,902.20 / silver $50.10 (01:05 UTC open feed). SLPA programme re-pulled: 18 entries / 16,909 moves, ETAs 30 Oct-4 Nov - unchanged. T-bills: no auction until Wed 4 Nov; register matches The Morning's PDMO detail on the 28 Oct auction (Rs 86.48bn of Rs 100bn; 91-day 9.34% +2bp). Landslide bulletin LEWM-38 expired 16:00 SLT 1 Nov; no successor appeared on the DMC bulletin list at the 06:40 SLT check, and the rainfall & flood emergency board is retired. Met Dept: afternoon thundershowers today, >50mm possible at some places; tracking cyclonic storm Murasu over the Bay of Bengal (watch item). ml-history: Brent Sep average 114.16 and USD/LKR Sep monthly average 329.5 appended. Peers API ok (28 names, Fri 30 Oct close).

31 OCTNBRO_LEW38th landslide bulletin (LEWM-31-10-2026-1600-38, issued 16:00 SLT): warning narrowed - Level 1 yellow only in Kandy (Yatinuwara) and Kegalle (Aranayake, Mawanella); Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura left the warning; no amber or red. Valid to 16:00 SLT 1 Nov.

30 OCTCBSL_EXTSeptember external sector: record monthly merchandise exports $1,377m (+21.0% y/y), imports $2,109m (+2.9% y/y), trade gap about -$731m; current account -$128m after August's surplus, Jan-Sep -$420m; gross official reserves $6.867bn end-Sep; tourism earnings $186m (+1.5% y/y); remittances $734m (+5.6% y/y).

30 OCTCBSL_PMISeptember construction PMI 57.8 on the Total Activity Index (Aug 59.4): continued expansion at a slower pace; new orders 65.6; respondents cite bitumen and skilled-worker shortages. Appended to the history series.

30 OCTCBSL_WEIWeekly indicators 30 Oct: AWPR 11.23% (+30bp w/w); 29 Oct generation 54.61 GWh (hydro 49.6%, coal 19.2%, oil 14.4% - coal back after the 19-21 Oct gap); ASPI +2.32% and S&P SL20 +2.37% w/w; reserves $6,867mn end-Sep.

30 OCTNBRO_LEW37th landslide bulletin (LEWM-30-10-2026-1600-37, issued 16:00 SLT): amber lifted - all six Ratnapura DSDs shifted down to yellow; yellow in Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura; Galle and Kalutara left the warning; no amber or red. Valid to 16:00 SLT 31 Oct.

30 OCTNBRO_LEW36th landslide bulletin (LEWM-29-10-2026-1600-36): amber Level 2 continues for six Ratnapura DSDs (Ratnapura, Ayagama, Pelmadulla, Kuruwita, Elapatha, Opanayake); Level 1 yellow for Galle, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and remaining Ratnapura DSDs, several shifted down; no red. Valid 16:00 SLT 29 Oct to 16:00 SLT 30 Oct. Warning levels describe assessed hazard, not conditions on the ground.

29 OCTPDMO_TBILLPhase II of the 28 Oct auction raised Rs 2.5bn (182d at 9.44%, 364d at 9.95%); aggregate accepted Rs 88.98bn, settlement 30 Oct. Auction: 91d 9.34% (+2bp), 182d and 364d unchanged; Rs 86.48bn of Rs 100bn offered.

30 OCTCSE_CLOSEASPI -0.62% to 20,142.33; S&P SL20 -0.48% to 5,746.40; turnover Rs 958.58m, banks led (CSE).

29 OCTCSE_CLOSEASPI +1.49% to 20,267.15; S&P SL20 +1.26% to 5,764.20; turnover Rs 2.27bn, banks led (CSE via EconomyNext). Correction, 30 Oct: the SL20 close was 5,773.92 (+1.43%) per the CSE’s own feed; 5,764.20 was EconomyNext’s print.

29 OCTCBSL_GOVGovernor Weerasinghe at a CSE/SEC investor forum: inflation manageable around $100/bbl oil; if higher oil persists, inflation would exceed current levels (EconomyNext, 29 Oct).

27 OCTWEATHERDMC via News 1st, 27 Oct: 12,032 affected (3,162 families) across 12 districts; 304 in 8 safety centres; one drowning death at Madampe, Puttalam; 227 houses damaged since 23 Oct. Red landslide warnings (NBRO msg LEWM-27-10-2026-1600-34, valid 16:00 SLT 27 Oct to 16:00 SLT 28 Oct) for six Ratnapura DSDs, Bulathsinhala/Dodangoda (Kalutara), Ambagamuwa Korale/Norwood (Nuwara Eliya). Red landslide warnings EXPIRED 16:00 SLT 28 Oct - superseded by NBRO msg LEWM-28-10-2026-1600-35 (amber Level 2 in five districts, no red; valid to 16:00 SLT 29 Oct). Red lightning for Ampara & Batticaloa expired 23:30 SLT 27 Oct (Met Dept); no successor advisory issued. Kalu Ganga, Nilwala Ganga and Attanagalu Oya at minor flood; Kelani, Gin, Maha Oya, Deduru Oya on watch. Irrigation Dept reports 30 tanks & reservoirs at spill (26-27 Oct) - the desk's published 74-tank dataset showed 16 spilling in the 26 Oct update, a different set and date; the 27 Oct update shows 21 spilling and 47.5% gross. Schools and preschools closed 27 Oct, reopening 28 Oct (O/L practicals postponed at affected centres). New Rainfall & flood emergency board under Live boards · Power & water.

27 OCTPDMO_DDBDebt office rejected all bids at the 23 Oct Domestic Dollar Bond auction ($100m issue, option to raise to $300m); the notice cites only the issuer's right to accept or reject applications. Market sources told Daily FT demand was encouraging but bid rates were seen as too high after Fitch's September upgrade. Second DDB since the crisis; the first (Dec 2025) raised $50m at 5.7% (1yr) and 6.1% (2yr).

26 OCTEDB_XPTSeptember exports $1.38bn, +21.66% y/y, driven by electronics and spices (EDB via EconomyNext). CBSL's September external-sector release is not yet published, so the trade-balance tile stays on the August CBSL basis.

26 OCTBOCBank of Ceylon plans a Rs 30bn Basel III debenture issue (EconomyNext)

25 OCTCBSL_RESCentral bank seeks a panel of experts for troubled-bank resolutions (EconomyNext)

15 OCTCBSL_PMISeptember PMIs published: manufacturing 53.0 (Aug 53.0, same pace of expansion); services 60.5 (Aug 65.6, slower expansion)

21 OCTPDMO_TBILLAuction result published: yields 9.32% / 9.44% / 9.95%; Rs 80.611bn accepted of Rs 100bn offered, bids Rs 186.002bn. Settlement 23 Oct. Phase II tap 22 Oct: Rs 2.282bn sold at 9.32 / 9.44 / 9.95; week total Rs 82.893bn (EconomyNext, citing the debt office; primary release not yet posted).

21 OCTDCS_NCPISeptember NCPI headline inflation 8.1% y/y, steady at a 40-month high (Aug 8.1%); index 224.2 vs 223.9; food 6.9%, non-food 9.1%

14 OCTPDMO_TBILLAuction result now published: yields 9.30% / 9.44% / 9.95%; Rs 66.126bn accepted of Rs 90bn offered, bids Rs 180.735bn. Settlement 16 Oct; Phase II subscription deadline was 15 Oct at 15:00; subsequent allocations are not yet verified.

30 SEPDCS_CCPISeptember inflation published: 8.0% y/y, unchanged; index 209.1

24 SEPEDB_XPTAugust exports $1,601.36m (+1.77% y/y), published by EDB

01 OCTCPC_FUELCPC official history confirms 1 Oct: P92 Rs 414/litre, auto diesel Rs 392/litre; checked 13 Oct

21 SEPDCS_NCPIAugust NCPI headline inflation 8.1% y/y (Jul 7.2%); CCPI remains 8.0% y/y

11 SEPSLTDA_ARRAugust arrivals published: 191,704, -3.3% y/y

15 SEPDCS_GDPQ2 2026 real GDP published: +4.2% y/y

21 SEPMOF_BUDGETAppropriation Bill 2027 supplement issued; Gazette Part II is dated 18 Sep

20 NOVCBSL_MPRnext regular review; 30 Sep held OPR at 8.75%

07 OCTMOF_BUDGETBudget 2027 first reading in Parliament

12 NOVMOF_BUDGETBudget 2027 speech; debate to 20 Nov, committee to 14 Dec

04 OCTIMF_EFFSeventh-review staff-level agreement reached; Board approval and financing assurances remain conditions, not completed disbursement

Sources: PDMO 14 Oct auction notice, published12Oct · DCS/CCPI calendar · CPC official history · CBSL policy calendar · Parliament first reading and budget timetable, 7 Oct 2026 · Appropriation Bill Gazette supplement · Fuel revision reported by Daily FT, 1 Oct · IMF seventh-review staff-level agreement, 4 Oct 2026. Dates marked ~ are cadence estimates, not announced dates.

Desk read · sentiment[ANALYST READ]

RISK-ON · EXTERNALS WATCH

RATING +Fitch to B- from CCC+ on 22 Sep, outlook stable - first step out of the CCC bucket

RATES +364-day unchanged at 9.95% on 28 Oct; 91-day +2bp to 9.34%, 182-day unchanged at 9.44%

FX +open feed 332.39 on2Nov, about1.0% stronger vs end-Jul335.87; CBSL reports $64m net absorption inSep, not a daily intervention reading

RESERVES -$6.867bn end-Sep, -0.9% m/m; CBSL absorbed $64m in Sep

CREDIT ++24.5% y/y Aug, versus 26.4% Jul in the latest CBSL banking-system table

OIL +Brent January settled $113.43, +$2.63 (+2.37%) d/d on 30 Oct versus $110.80 on 29 Oct, and December expired at $117.64 the same session - the $4.21 gap is the roll, not a market move (CNBC; Dow Jones settle report via Morningstar; reported ICE settlement).

EXT ACCT +September current account -$128m after August's +$133.4m surplus; Jan-Sep -$420m; record monthly exports $1,377m (CBSL, 30 Oct)

TOURISM -Sep arrivals 158,557, -0.3% y/y; Oct 1-25 tally 136,093

A read on the dated items on this desk, not investment advice. The balance: local rates and FX are risk-on; the caveats sit on the external side - oil and soft arrivals; CBSL reports August current account +$133.4m; Jan-Aug remains -$290.6m. Recounts as the dated blocks refresh.

Commodity board[MIXED]

Brent crude, $ / bbl113.43+2.37% D/D · 30 OCT · JAN CONTRACT

Gold, $ / oz3,902.2002 NOV 01:05 UTC · OPEN FEED

Silver, $ / oz50.1002 NOV 01:05 UTC · OPEN FEED

Tea auction avg, Rs / kg1,203SEP NSA

BRENT FRONT-MONTH SETTLE, USD/BBL · SINCE AUG 07 AUG ████████████ 84.7 17 AUG ██████████████ 87.8 02 SEP ██████████████████ 96.5 10 SEP █████████████████████ 101.2 11 SEP ████████████████████████ 108.2 14 SEP ████████████████████████ 107.7 18 SEP ██████████████████████ 103.87 21 SEP ████████████████████ 100.34 22 SEP ████████████████████ 99.25 23 SEP ██████████████████████ 103.08 24 SEP ████████████████████████ 106.60 25 SEP ███████████████████████ 104.32 28 SEP ███████████████████████ 105.28 29 SEP ██████████████████████ 102.59 30 SEP ██████████████████████ 103.50 · NOV CONTRACT (EXPIRED) 01 OCT ██████████████████████ 102.31 · DEC CONTRACT 02 OCT ██████████████████████ 102.25 05 OCT ████████████████████ 100.32 06 OCT ████████████████████ 100.58 · DEC CONTRACT 08 OCT ██████████████████████ 104.28 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 07 OCT NOT ADDED: CONFLICTING SECONDARY READINGS 09 OCT ██████████████████████ 104.72 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 12 OCT ██████████████████████ 106.65 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 13 OCT ██████████████████████ 105.69 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 14 OCT ██████████████████████ 106.06 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 15 OCT ██████████████████████ 105.92 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 16 OCT ███████████████████████ 109.86 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 19 OCT ███████████████████████ 109.55 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 20 OCT ██████████████████████ 108.79 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 21 OCT ██████████████████████ 108.82 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 22 OCT ███████████████████████ 113.17 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 23 OCT ████████████████████████ 116.72 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 26 OCT ████████████████████████ 115.81 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 27 OCT ███████████████████████ 113.88 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 28 OCT ████████████████████████ 115.32 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 29 OCT ████████████████████████ 114.88 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 30 OCT ████████████████████████ 117.64 · DEC CONTRACT · REPORTED 30 OCT ███████████████████████ 113.43 · JAN CONTRACT · REPORTED

Brent: Dow Jones Market Data, 16 Oct 2026 (via Morningstar), corroborated by CNBC. 21 Oct: December ICE Brent settlement $108.82, +$0.03 (+0.03%) d/d, per Reuters (via Euronext). 22 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $113.17, +$4.35 (+4.00%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar) and a Dow Jones-style settle wire (settlement reports read 22 Oct); the 20 Oct settle was $108.79, -$0.76 (-0.69%). 23 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $116.72, +$3.55 (+3.14%) d/d and +6.24% w/w, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar), with supply-fear coverage from CNBC and The Guardian; the CBSL 23 Oct weekly indicators describe Brent at a five-month high. 26 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $115.81, -$0.91 (-0.78%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar) and CNBC. 27 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $113.88, -$1.93 (-1.67%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar). 28 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $115.32, +$1.44 (+1.26%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar). 29 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $114.88, -$0.44 (-0.38%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar). 30 Oct: front-month ICE Brent settlement $117.64, +$2.76 (+2.40%) d/d, per Dow Jones (via Morningstar). January Brent settled $113.43 (+$2.63, +2.37%) the same session and is now front month (CNBC); the $4.21 roll gap is contract mechanics, not a market move. The publisher's daily change is retained; 7 Oct is not inserted into history because secondary readings disagree. Direct ICE settlement data has not been independently confirmed; earlier points are desk-recorded. Gold & silver: Gold-API XAU and XAG, browser live with fallbacks checked 24 Oct 01:07 UTC · Tea: Forbes & Walker Research, September national sale average Rs 1,202.74/kg, published 6 Oct 2026.

Exports board · EDB monthly[DATED 24 SEP 2026 · LAST CHECKED 24 SEP]

Total exports, Aug

$1,601.36m

+1.77% y/y (merch + services)

Merchandise, Aug

$1,269.49m

-1.0% y/y, EDB provisional

Services, Aug

$331.87m

+13.97% y/y; ICT/BPM $135.1m

Jan-Aug total

$12,006.64m

+4.26% y/y; EDB estimate

Merchandise, Jan-Aug$9,405.91m+3.63% y/y

Services, Jan-Aug$2,600.73m+6.59% y/y

Trade deficit, Jan-Aug$7.180bnCBSL CUSTOMS, JAN-AUG

Fuel imports, Jan-Jul$3,622mJAN-JUL HISTORICAL

Current account, Aug+$133.4mCBSL, AUG

Gross official reserves$6.851bnEND-SEP, CBSL

Source: Sri Lanka Export Development Board, 24 Sep 2026, August provisional merchandise and estimated services exports. Total $1,601.36m = $1,269.49m + $331.87m; Jan-Aug $12,006.64m = $9,405.91m + $2,600.73m. EDB figures are provisional and not the same basis as CBSL's customs trade balance, which is now dated August on the trade desk. Apparel declined 8.4% y/y in August, while services rose 13.97%.

Exports by sector · who they carry[DATED AUG 2026 · LAST CHECKED 24 SEP]

Sector	Aug 2026 earnings	y/y	Share of Aug exports	People it carries
Apparel & textiles	$464.27m	-8.4%	36.6% of merch	350,000 direct jobs, ~1m incl. indirect; ~6% of GDP (JAAF)
ICT/BPM (services)	$135.10m	n/a	40.7% of services	115,000+ direct jobs (SLASSCOM, 2024)
Tea	$130.92m	-7.76%	10.3% of merch	~2m livelihoods, 10% of population (Tea Board, 2024)
Rubber products	$94.98m	+9.24%	7.5% of merch	300,000+ direct & indirect jobs (EDB)
Electrical & electronics	$62.40m	+56.31%	4.9% of merch	insulated wires and cables +30.83% y/y in Aug (EDB)
Spices & essential oils	$75.29m	+82.08%	5.9% of merch	cinnamon: ~70,000 smallholders, 30,000 peelers (STDF master plan)
Coconut-based products	$104.27m	-17.28%	8.2% of merch	coconut oil and liquid coconut milk declined (EDB)
Seafood	$19.09m	+3.58%	1.5% of merch	frozen fish and shrimp drove the gain (EDB)

Source: EDB August release, 24 Sep 2026. Shares are derived from EDB's August merchandise $1,269.49m or services $331.87m; sector categories may overlap or be provisional. Jobs and livelihood estimates are older contextual sources, not August measurements; see methodology.

T-bill auction · primary[AS OF 28 OCT · LAST CHECKED 28 OCT]

91-day9.34%▲2BP

182-day9.44%UNCHANGED

364-day9.95%UNCHANGED

28 Oct accepted

Rs 86.48bn

of Rs 100bn offered (PDMO data via EconomyNext)

All tenors

Mixed

+2bp / unchanged / unchanged

Accepted split

91d 68.09bn

182d 9.34bn; 364d 9.03bn

Latest auction

WED 28 OCT

weekly, Public Debt Mgmt Office

Source: PDMO auction result, 28 Oct 2026 (via EconomyNext), checked 28 Oct 13:42 UTC. Rs 100bn offered; Rs 86.48bn sold (reported split: 91d 68.09bn, 182d 9.34bn, 364d 9.03bn - sums to 86.46bn against the reported 86.48bn headline; the source does not state a reason). Yields 9.34% / 9.44% / 9.95%; 182d and 364d available on tap. Previous yields (21 Oct): 9.32% / 9.44% / 9.95%. Direct treasury.gov.lk check unreachable from the desk at check time; official PDMO PDF link pending.

Rupee pressure gauge[MODEL]

WATCH

USD/LKR vs end-Jul1.5%STRONGER

Reserves, m/m-1.1%SEP

CBSL net FX buys$64mSEP

Composite of three dated inputs, equal-weighted: FX move off the live board vs end-Jul (335.87), reserve momentum (CBSL, end-Sep $6.867bn, -0.9% from end-Aug $6.929bn (30 Oct weekly indicators)), CBSL September net absorption, $64m. Forward premium omitted - no dated public source. Mapping is an analyst prior; refresh dates on the inputs. Depth: USD/LKR monthly averages run back to Jan 2020 (75 dated readings through Aug2026; the daily FX feed is a separate measure), 364-day T-bill yields back to Jan 2020, gross reserves back to Apr 2020.

Hydro & reservoirs[WMS REPORT 23 OCT · MIXED READING DATES · CHECKED 24 OCT UTC]

Mahaweli WMS gross-total storage

71%

3,898.03 of 5,489.01 mcm gross in the 23 Oct WMS report; individual readings 20-23 Oct. Power-station reservoirs 80% (Victoria 94%, Kotmale 78%, Randenigala 75%, Samanalawewa 54%). Gross-total storage was 69% in the 19 Oct report.

Hydro · Irrigation Dept tanks & ranges[30 OCT UPDATE · CHECKED 31 OCT · DESK CALCULATION]

Gross storage, 74 major tanks

47.6%

gross storage / gross capacity, 30 Oct update; 63 readings dated 30 Oct, 6 dated 28-29 Oct, 5 date cells #REF! (desk calculation)

Water in store

1,483,447 ac-ft

of 3,114,406 ac-ft gross capacity; 30 Oct update (desk calculation)

Spilling (30 Oct update)

12 of 74 tanks marked Yes in the 30 Oct update

Senanayaka Samudra

16.4%

126,260 / 770,012 ac-ft gross, 30 Oct reading (computed)

IRRIGATION RANGE STORAGE, % GROSS
30 OCT UPDATE - DESK CALCULATION FROM 74 TANK ROWS
KANDY ████████████████ 98.6
PUTTALAM ███████████████ 92.4
KURUNEGALA ███████████████ 89.5
GALLE/MATARA █████████████ 80.6
HAMBANTOTA ███████████ 68.9
ANURADAPURA ██████████ 61.4
POLONNARUWA ██████████ 57.7
MANNAR █████████ 56.0
MONARAGALA ████████ 50.2
TRINCOMALEE ████████ 48.6
BADULLA ███████ 44.6
BATTICALOA █████ 31.3
AMPARA ███ 20.7

Source: Irrigation Department reservoir status, official major-reservoir dashboard and its public daily storage table, checked 31 Oct 2026. The 30 Oct update has 74 reservoir rows: 63 readings dated 30 Oct, 4 dated 29 Oct, 2 dated 28 Oct, with 5 reading-date cells showing #REF! (storage figures unaffected); the desk-calculated aggregate is 47.6% gross. The Giants Tank (Mannar range) reads 23,951 ac-ft against 30,982 ac-ft capacity (77.3%). The Kandy range sum is 98.6% of nominal gross capacity as published, back below 100% after the 28 Oct update showed 100.6%. No reservoir value has been guessed or corrected. Gross storage is divided by gross capacity, not active capacity. All rows are included in this published snapshot; it is not a same-day reading of every tank. Range values are capacity-weighted ratios. Rainfall errors are not used. The separate Mahaweli WMS 23 Oct report shows gross-total storage 3,898.03 / 5,489.01 mcm (71.0%, displayed 71%) and power-station storage 1,744.43 / 2,182.13 mcm (79.9%, displayed 80%). Its individual readings span 20-23 Oct. The two reservoir sets are not directly comparable. Storage influences the generation mix, fuel use and tariff outlook.

Rainfall · Met Dept map[DAILY]

Department of Meteorology 24-hour accumulated rainfall map of Sri Lanka

General forecast Numerical weather charts 10-day forecast

Map: Department of Meteorology, 24-hour accumulated rainfall, refreshed daily (the Department republishes the map; the full image visually checked on 15 Oct shows the 14 Oct 2026 print: max 127.3mm at Kekirawa). The map hot-links the Department’s own image so it updates when they republish; if the hotlink is unreachable the desk falls back to a dated snapshot bundled with the site (26 Aug print). Wet catchments → fuller reservoirs → more hydro, less thermal burn; sustained heavy rain cuts the other way for tea plucking and crop quality.

Port of Hambantota · throughput board[DATED JUL 26 · LAST CHECKED 23 SEP]

Containers, Jul 2026

86,989

TEU · record month (Jun 80,325)

RoRo vehicles, Jul 2026

104,620

record month (Jun 90,219)

Total cargo, 2025

8.24m MT

+175% y/y

Containers, 2025

428,036

TEU · 8x the 53,170 of 2024

CONTAINER TEU, HAMBANTOTA 2024 █ 53,170 2025 ████████ 428,036 JUN 2026 ██ 80,325 JUL 2026 ██ 86,989 · record month

Sources: HIPG via Daily FT, 17 Aug 2026 (record July: 86,989 TEU, 104,620 vehicles) · HIPG, 9 Jul 2026 (record June) · HIPG, 11 Jan 2026 (2025 cargo 8.24m MT, +175%; 53,170 TEU in 2024) · single-vessel record 13,260 TEU, MSC Marie Leslie, Apr 2026 · HIPG $108m crane order, 2026. Volumes lifted by Gulf-route diversions and Colombo congestion.

BIA · air gateway board[DATED JUN 26 · LAST CHECKED 23 SEP]

Passengers, H1 2026

4.75m

Jan-Jun · BIA only

Aircraft movements

30,659

H1 2026

Transit passengers

424,856

H1 2026

Record month

1,045,097

Jan 2026 · all-island pax

BIA PASSENGERS, JAN-JUN 2026 H1 2026 ████████████ 4,748,481 of which transit 424,856 TOURISTS IN, H1 2026 ~1.146m

AASL operating data for Jan-Jun 2026, reported 17 Jul 2026 · January all-airports record (previous 1,034,687 in Jan 2018): Aviation Voice, 17 Feb 2026 · 2025 full year: 10.2m passengers, 95,629 movements across Sri Lanka's airports (AASL 2025 key figures).

Regional ports[DATED AUG 26 · LAST CHECKED 23 SEP]

19 AUGTRINCOMALEEAAL maiden call - 64,000 FRT of turbine components for the 50MW HayWind Mannar wind farm

29 MAYTRINCOMALEEfirst three-vessel day - turbines, 17,000t steel rods, 55,000t coal for INSEE

SEPKKSKaraikal-KKS-Trincomalee container ferry was proposed for September; start not independently confirmed as of 28 Sep. KKS rebuild on an India grant was reported in final stage.

NOV 25GALLEminister: formal investor call to rebuild Galle as a tourism port (cruise berth, ~$175m)

Sources: Newswire, 1 Jun 2026 · Move It Magazine, 19 Aug 2026 · Daily Mirror, 13 Jul 2026 · Daily Express, 27 Nov 2025. Regional ports carry bulk, project cargo and island services - no container mainline yet.

Track Colombo vessels live[EXTERNAL AIS]

The SLPA-derived berthing board above is the operational view for ETAs, assigned slots and planned container moves. For live vessel positions, open a verified map below; third-party AIS maps are not embedded because they block framing.

Open VesselFinder · Colombo Open MarineTraffic · Colombo

Population & vitals[DATED 2025 · LAST CHECKED 23 SEP]

Mid-year population

21.76m

1 Jul 2025, provisional

Census headcount

21,781,800

CPH 2024, 19 Dec 2024

Growth 2012-24

+0.5%

avg per year, intercensal

Western Province

28.1%

of population; Northern 5.3%

Birth rate, per 1,00010.12024

Death rate, per 1,0007.82024

Net migration-41,0022025 H1

Largest districtGampaha 2.44mCENSUS

Colombo density3,551/km²CENSUS

Sources: Registrar General mid-year population estimate, Oct 2025 web release (2024/25 series, anchored to the census count) · DCS Census of Population and Housing 2024, final report (10 Apr 2026) (census moment midnight 18-19 Dec 2024) · DCS Statistical Data Sheet 2025 (vital rates, 2024). Why the desk cares: the 2024 census settled the headcount at 21.78m - below the older 22m estimates - and net migration is still negative, so every long-run demand line on this desk sits on a slowly shrinking, ageing base. Refreshed when the Registrar General or DCS republish; not a daily block.

Labour market[DATED Q2 2026 · LAST CHECKED 09 OCT]

Unemployment

4.0%

Q2 2026; 3.8% in Q2 2025

Participation

50.0%

Q2 2026; 49.3% in Q2 2025

Labour force

8.32m

2024 annual average

Female participation

29.8%

2024; male 67.4%

Jobs in services49.2%Q2 26

Jobs in industry27.3%Q2 26

Jobs in agriculture23.4%Q2 26

Unemployment, female7.1%2024

Foreign-job registrations314,7862024

Mean household incomeRs 76,414/moHIES 19

Quarterly block: CBSL WEI, 2 Oct 2026, PDF6 / printed5, sourced to DCS. Q2 unemployment and participation both rose versus Q2 2025; this is not the earlier Q1 falling-participation narrative. Sector shares are percentages of total employment, not percentages of the labour force. Separate historical annual/HIES rows above are retained at their stated dates and have not been freshly cleared in this audit. DCS quarterly index still lists Q1, while CBSL reports Q2; the Q2 figures here are explicitly attributed to CBSL, not a retrieved DCS Q2 report.

Six-bank scale · standalone H1 statements[AS AT 30 JUN 2026 · CHECKED 10 OCT]

Bank-size readings, not market-share estimates. Standalone bank columns, not consolidated groups. Rs billion; each stock is at 30 June 2026.

Bank	Deposits · Rs bn	Gross customer loans · Rs bn	Primary statement
COMB	2,908.185	2,286.571	PDF 9 and 26
HNB	2,100.606	1,737.857	PDF 5 and 18
Sampath	1,741.280	1,449.406	PDF 8 and 13
NDB	712.497	648.996	PDF 8 and 17
DFCC	631.993	610.785	PDF 9 and 14
NTB	688.914	565.106	PDF 5 and 9

Measure and geography limits. COMB bank includes Bangladesh branches, so it is not domestic-only. DFCC gross customer loans here are amortised-cost loans: separate gross FVOCI customer loans of Rs 5.018bn and loans to banks of Rs 10.003bn are not included in that column. NTB includes the HSBC business acquisition; NDB comparison bases were restated after the disclosed fraud. HNB and Sampath use exact standalone-bank values, replacing rounded media marks.

Separate industry context, not ratio denominators. CBSL Q2 provisional banking-industry deposits Rs 20,616.923bn and gross loans/receivables Rs 15,263.525bn. LCB-only totals differ: Rs 18,481.729bn deposits and Rs 14,085.040bn gross loans/receivables. The CBSL category and reporting geography are not fully reconciled to issuer customer-loan columns. No percentages, six-bank total or residual concentration is calculated. CBSL 30 Sep workbook, Q2 provisional columns (Assets S14/S38; Liabilities & Capital S7/S29). Issuer references are in the table. Numerical PDF columns were checked directly; this bounded update is not a full-number audit clearance.

Market share · mobile operators[TOTAL JUL 26 · SHARES EST. · LAST CHECKED 23 SEP]

MOBILE SUBSmarket 29.53mTRCSL JUL 26

Dialog (incl. Airtel)██████████████████████████ ~64%19m+ of 29.53m

SLT-Mobitel████████ 18-20%6-6.5m

Hutch████ 10-12%3.6-3.8m

Market structure

3 operators

Airtel folded into Dialog, 2024

Penetration

136%

29.53m subscriptions (Jul 2026) vs 21.76m mid-2025 population, computed

5G spectrum

DEC 2025

first auction; Dialog + SLT-Mobitel

Market total 29,530,304 cellular mobile subscriptions: TRCSL telecom statistics, July 2026 (provisional; TRCSL does not publish operator splits). Operator shares are MacroLens estimates at end-2025; penetration computed against the Registrar General mid-2025 population of 21.76m.

Sector desks: power, trade, tourism, food

Open the power explorer: 30 daily readings, source mix, plant search and exports →

Four standing boards for the flows the headline indicators only summarise. Each carries its publisher and underlying data date.

ML▊SECTOR_DESKS

Feeds: PUCSL · CBSL · SLTDA

Cadence: PUBLISHER

STATUS: SOURCE-DATED

Power desk · generation mix[DATED 29 OCT 2026 · CHECKED 31 OCT]

The figures below are measured generation for 29 Oct, the latest day in the CBSL weekly indicators published 30 Oct - not a current grid reading. Coal is back in the mix at 10.50-12.76 GWh/day on 26-29 Oct after contributing zero on 19-21 Oct, so the oil-fired share fell to 14.4% of the 29 Oct mix, from 27.1% on 22 Oct.

Generation, 29 Oct

54.61 GWh

26-29 Oct avg 52.98 GWh/day

Hydro share

49.6%

26-29 Oct avg 52.0%

Oil-fired share

14.4%

the furnace-oil bill driver

Peak demand

2,850.8 MW

29 Oct, CBSL weekly indicators

MIX, 29 OCT 2026 · SHARE OF 54.61 GWH HYDRO ███████████████████ 49.6% COAL ███████ 19.2% THERMAL OIL ██████ 14.4% SOLAR █████ 13.0% WIND █ 2.9% BIOMASS █ 0.8%

Hydro27.11 GWh29 OCT

Coal10.50 GWh29 OCT

Thermal oil7.86 GWh29 OCT

Solar7.09 GWh29 OCT

Reservoir storage38.8%14 OCT MIXED · §01

Source: CBSL weekly economic indicators, 30 Oct 2026 - daily electricity generation by source and peak demand, 26-29 Oct 2026 (29 Oct is the latest day published). Shares and the 4-day average are desk calculations from those totals. Why it matters: the oil-fired share sets the furnace-oil import line in the trade desk and the CEB cost base behind the next tariff review; hydro share moves with the reservoir board in §01.

Trade desk · the monthly flow[RELEASE 30 OCT 2026 · SEP PRINT]

Merch exports, Sep

$1,377m

+21.0% y/y, record month, customs basis

Merch imports, Sep

$2,109m

+2.9% y/y

Trade gap, Sep

-$731m

narrower than Sep 2025; wider than Aug

Trade gap, Jan-Sep

-$7.9bn

vs -$5.2bn Jan-Sep 2025

MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE, US$M / MONTH JAN █████████████ -655 FEB ████████████████ -776 MAR ██████████████████ -880 APR ████████████████████████████ -1,383 MAY ███████████████████ -968 JUN █████████████████ -829 JUL ████████████████████ -1,018 AUG █████████████ -674 SEP ██████████████ -732

Exports, Jan-Sep$10,754m+5.3% Y/Y

Imports, Jan-Sep$18,666m+21.3% Y/Y

Fuel imports, Jan-Sep~$4.5bn+51.5% Y/Y

Vehicle imports, Jan-Sep$1,871mSEP $188m, -34.4% Y/Y

Services surplus, Sep+$119m-34.3% Y/Y

Current account, Sep-$128mJAN-SEP -$420m

Terms of tradeDeterioratingSEP & JAN-SEP

Source: CBSL External Sector Performance, September 2026, published 30 Oct. September figures as published: exports $1,377m (record month), imports $2,109m, deficit about $731m. Monthly earlier bars retain their dated release readings. EDB provisional merchandise and services estimates use different coverage and remain separate on §01. Tourism earnings use SLTDA's revised methodology.

Tourism desk · arrivals & earnings[THROUGH 25 OCT 2026 · CHECKED 31 OCT]

Arrivals, Sep

158,557

-0.3% y/y · monthly report

Arrivals, 1-25 Oct

136,093

YTD 1,829,772; provisional partial month

Earnings, Sep

$185.6m

+1.5% y/y, revised methodology

Earnings, Jan-Sep

$2,245.2m

-9.2% y/y

ARRIVALS, 000S / MONTH · Y/Y JAN ████████████████████████████ 277.3 · +9.7% FEB ████████████████████████████ 279.3 · +16.2% MAR ██████████████████ 184.0 · -19.8% APR ██████████████ 135.6 · -22.3% MAY ███████████████ 145.7 · +9.6% JUN ████████████ 124.6 · -9.9% JUL ████████████████████ 196.8 · -1.7% AUG ███████████████████ 191.7 · -3.3% SEP ███████████ 158.6 · -0.3% OCT █████████ 136.1 · 1-25 Oct, month to date

Top markets, Aug	Arrivals	y/y
India	47,253	+1.7%
United Kingdom	19,588	-0.9%
China	12,321	+0.2%
Germany	11,401	-8.8%
France	10,885	+3.7%
Australia	8,898	+13.6%
Italy	8,883	-27.5%
Spain	7,431	-16.0%
Japan	5,902	+15.1%
Canada	4,315	-0.4%

Asia & Pacific share, Aug49.4%EUROPE 42.5%

Jan-Aug: India385,483+18.4% Y/Y

Jan-Aug: Russia80,845-32.0% Y/Y

Sources: SLTDA monthly tourist arrivals report, August 2026 (published 11 Sep 2026) · Latest weekly: SLTDA 1-15 Oct 2026 (77,868; YTD 1,771,547). September full-month: SLTDA 1-30 Sep (158,557, -0.26% y/y; YTD 1,693,679). New full-month September report: SLTDA September monthly, confirms 158,557 arrivals. The country totals marked Jan-Aug remain on the August monthly report basis, not September YTD · earnings: CBSL weekly indicators, 16 Oct 2026 (Sep earnings; August revised to $264.6m). SLTDA revised its earnings methodology in May 2026 (country-specific spend and stay length) and applied it retrospectively from Jan 2026, so pre-revision monthly earnings are not comparable. Hotel occupancy for August is not yet published; this board adds it when SLTDA posts it.

Food basket · daily market prices[DATED 30 OCT 2026 · CHECKED 31 OCT]

Samba rice, retail

Rs 240

per kg, Pettah - flat vs last report

Vegetables

MOSTLY UP

8 of 10 listed movers rose vs last report

Largest listed rise

GREEN CHILLI +50.0%

Pettah retail, vs last report (29 Oct)

Largest listed fall

LIME -8.5%

Dambulla retail, vs last report (29 Oct)

Swipe sideways or focus the table and use arrow keys to see prices and changes.

Mover, vs 29 Oct	Market · basis	30 Oct	Chg
Green chilli	Pettah · retail	Rs 450/kg	+50.0%
Snake gourd	Dambulla · retail	Rs 345/kg	+43.8%
Big onion, imported	Dambulla · retail	Rs 370/kg	+21.3%
Beans	Pettah · retail	Rs 650/kg	+18.2%
Brinjal	Pettah · retail	Rs 450/kg	+12.5%
Red onion, imported	Dambulla · retail	Rs 445/kg	+9.9%
Lime	Dambulla · retail	Rs 1,080/kg	-8.5%
Coconut	Dambulla · retail	Rs 160/nut	+8.1%
Tomato	Pettah · retail	Rs 700/kg	+7.7%
Potato, local	Dambulla · retail	Rs 245/kg	-7.5%

Nadu rice, retailRs 220FLAT VS 26 OCT

Kekulu white, retailRs 193FLAT VS 26 OCT

Sugar, whiteRs 245FLAT VS 26 OCT

Red dhalRs 255FLAT VS 26 OCT

Coconut oilRs 843/l+0.2% VS 26 OCT

Eggs, whiteRs 36FLAT VS 26 OCT

Dried chilli, impRs 1,200FLAT VS 26 OCT

Coconut, avgRs 170/nutFLAT VS 26 OCT

Source: CBSL daily price report, 30 Oct 2026, retail at Pettah and Dambulla. Changes compare 30 October with 29 October. Staple rows use Pettah retail; vegetables name their market. Largest labels refer only to listed movers, not all report items.

Procurement desk: the official tender register

A decision view across five high-yield official publishers. Source facts stay separate from the categories, countdowns and change flags MacroLens parses.

ML▊PROCUREMENT

Publishers: TREASURY · HEALTH · CBSL · CEB · SLPA

CHECKED 26 OCT · PARTIAL REGISTER

25 Oct check: Treasury, Health, CEB and SLPA publisher pages reachable; CBSL returned 403 and PDMO timed out from the desk environment, so those boards retain their last verified records (21 Oct auction as reported by EconomyNext citing the debt office). Attachment reconciliation remains incomplete. The PDMO 14 Oct auction-result PDF values were rechecked on 20 Oct; subsequent Phase II allocations remain unverified.

12tracked records

5official publishers

2verified addendum

8dated deadlines

SHOWING 12 OF 12

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

IT solutions for HRM business processes

High

CBSL-73/01/002/2026/01Published 11 Sep 2026Close 01 Oct 2026 · 14:30

Digital & ITDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial notice names the reference and submission deadline.

MacroLens interpretationCategory and days remaining are MacroLens-parsed fields.

View issuing authority →

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Vehicles for the CBSL vehicle fleet

High

CBSL-73/01/062/2026/001Published 10 Sep 2026Close 01 Oct 2026 · 14:30

VehiclesDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial IFB (one sedan EV, four plug-in hybrid SUVs, two double cabs) states bids close at 14:30 on 1 October 2026 and are opened immediately.

MacroLens interpretationCategory and days remaining are MacroLens-parsed fields.

View issuing authority →

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Site preparatory works, currency operations revamp - Phase 01, Package 02 (electrical)

High

CBSL-73/01/036/2026/01Published 21 Sep 2026Close 12 Oct 2026 · 14:30

FacilitiesDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial notice names the procurement number, a pre-bid meeting on 1 October at 10:30 and bid closing and opening on 12 October at 14:30.

MacroLens interpretationCategory and days remaining are MacroLens-parsed fields.

View issuing authority →

Ministry of Finance

Payroll system for government organisations

Review

DSA/PROC/NCB/2026/02Addendum dated 20 Aug 2026Notice close 04 Sep 2026 · 14:00

Digital & ITDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeAddendum III, page 2, extends delivery to 4 September 2026 at 14:00. The Treasury board posted it on 20 August.

MacroLens interpretationThe stated deadline has passed. This is not an award or cancellation finding; later changes beyond the checked board remain unverified.

View issuing authority →

Ministry of Finance

Two motor cars under operational leasing

Review

DMS/AD/02/Vehicle Ope. Lea./2026Treasury posted 24 Aug 2026Notice close 11 Sep 2026 · 10:30

VehiclesDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeVolume II bid data sheet, PDF page 6, states 11 September 2026 at 10:30.

MacroLens interpretationThe stated deadline has passed. This is not an award finding.

View issuing authority →

Excise Department via Treasury

Security features management system for liquor products

Review

ED/AC/20/F/19/2026Extension dated 2 Oct 2026; posted 5 OctClose 20 Oct 2026 · 15:00

Digital & ITDEADLINE EXTENDED

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial extension notice dated 2 October moves submission to 20 October 2026 at 15:00. Treasury posted it on 5 October.

MacroLens interpretationCategory is parsed from the title.

View issuing authority →

Ministry of Finance

Garden maintenance at the Ministry of Finance

Unverified

MOF/Shopping/13/39/2026Published Sep 2026Close See official notice

FacilitiesNOT ON CURRENT BOARD

Evidence record

The 10 October check did not find this retained record on the current Treasury board. Original notice and deadline remain unverified.

Historical retained entry, not a confirmed live opportunity. Absence from the board is not proof of cancellation.

View issuing authority →

Sri Lanka Ports Authority

Current procurement notices and tender attachments

Source only

SLPA-current-boardPublished Current boardClose Open official board

Ports & Logistics

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial SLPA site publishes procurement attachments.

MacroLens interpretationBoard-level source only; individual notices are not represented as parsed records yet.

View issuing authority →

Ceylon Electricity Board

Current electricity procurement notices

Source only

CEB-current-boardPublished Current boardClose Open official board

Energy

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial CEB tender board publishes notice PDFs.

MacroLens interpretationBoard-level source only; individual notices are not represented as parsed records yet.

View issuing authority →

Ministry of Finance

100 all-in-one computers and 30 laptops

High

MOF/NCB/22/95/2026Published 25 Sep 2026Notice close 09 Oct 2026 · 14:00

Digital & ITDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeVolume II invitation (PDF page 3) and bid data sheet (PDF page 7) both state 9 October 2026 at 14:00.

MacroLens interpretationThe stated deadline has passed. The clarification cut-off elsewhere has a 2027 year inconsistency; it is not used as the submission deadline. No award finding.

View issuing authority →

Ministry of Health · HSEP

Furniture and computer lab fittings for the Medical Supplies Division

High

HSEP(AF)/PMU/PRO/G36.4/12/2025Published 24 Sep 2026Close 10 Oct 2026 · 11:30

FacilitiesDEADLINE PASSED

Evidence record

On the noticeOfficial 24 Sep RFQ lists tables, chairs and workstations for the MSD computer training lab and asks for sealed quotations by 10 Oct at 11:30.

MacroLens interpretationFacilities category and title shorten the source wording; deadline is from the RFQ.

View issuing authority →

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Enterprise data solution

High

CBSL-73/01/007/2026/01Published 27 Sep 2026EOI close 26 Oct 2026 · 14:30

Digital & ITNEW

Evidence record

On the noticeCBSL's procurement notice and full invitation request expressions of interest for an enterprise data solution, with submission no later than 14:30 on 26 October 2026.

MacroLens interpretationDigital category is parsed from the title. This is an EOI, not an awarded contract.

View issuing authority →

5Digital & IT

2Vehicles

3Facilities

1Ports

1Energy

Register checked 16 Oct 2026 (Colombo), partial inspection. Treasury's current board now starts with the National Insurance Trust Fund retrocession programme for 15 December 2026 to 14 December 2027; its attachments are not yet reconciled to this register. The earlier roofing notice remains a separately verified record. CBSL's direct board returned an access error on16Oct. Last verified14Oct, it led with11Oct chilled-water insulation and9Oct Nuwara Eliya residence, not yet tracked below. Their closing times, verified 14 Oct, were 3 Nov 14:30 and 30 Oct 14:00 respectively. Health now lists14Oct ultrasound-scanner andMedicalKIOSK notices plus a10OctRFQ; the downloaded scan-only attachments are not yet fully reconciled; the retained 10 Oct furniture deadline is now marked passed. CEB and SLPA public boards loaded, but their newer attachment-level coverage remains unverified. Existing primary notices rechecked: payroll, leased cars and computers now carry their source deadlines and passed-deadline flags. Dates are Sri Lanka time; passed deadlines do not prove an award or cancellation. Garden maintenance is a retained historical entry not found on the current Treasury board. New Treasury roofing (23 Oct, 14:00), vehicle and e-passport records remain outside this 12-record register; Health has a 3 Oct computer/UPS/photocopier RFQ closing 21 Oct at 11:30, not yet added. The Sinhala Health board lags the English board; the publisher link now uses English. CEB latest notices and SLPA attachments remain unverified. This is a partial register, not an all-publisher clearance. Treasury posted a 100 all-in-one computer and 30 laptop IFB on 25 Sep; Health HSEP furniture/computer lab RFQ published 24 Sep; the earlier endoscope tender closed 22 Sep. Publishers: Treasury · Ministry of Health · CBSL · CEB · SLPA. A missing deadline is withheld, not guessed.

Scenario lab

Move the indicators. The model runs the matrix and returns an estimated twelve-month revenue impact by sector, ranked. Start from a preset or build your own macro path.

Slider ranges are analyst-chosen plausible bands for each indicator, not statistical ranges. The model is linear, additive and sign-symmetric: no interactions between indicators, no curvature at the extremes. Watch for double counting - tea sits inside exports, and FX and export growth overlap, so stacking related sliders overstates the move. The unchanged-macro baseline is the desk’s latest dated print on each indicator: OPR 8.75% (30 Sep), CCPI 8.3% y/y (Oct), USD/LKR 332.39 (2 Nov), private credit +24.5% y/y (Aug), arrivals 158,557 (Sep), Brent January $113.43 (30 Oct), remittances $734.4m (Sep), tea Rs 1,203/kg (Sep NSA), merchandise exports $1,269.49m (Aug), VAT 18%, capex at the IMF-programme consolidation stance.

Model readout

Estimated 12-month revenue impact vs. an unchanged-macro baseline, in percent. Elasticities are analyst-set priors, documented in Method; they are set for direction and relative magnitude, not fitted to a regression. Illustrative, not investment advice.

Twelve sectors, each with its own operating clock

For every sector, the two or three leading indicators that actually set the revenue line, and the lag between the indicator and the filing.

My stock watchlist · Bank comparison · Dated stock history

The peer map

The CSE's 28 largest companies, sized by market cap, priced from cse.lk and refreshed automatically through the trading day, connected by revenue line. Prices: CSE close, Fri 30 Oct 2026; trailing revenue to Aug 2026.

ML▊PEER MAP Mkt cap Rev (ttm) Peers

Centre Sort Quantified relationships only

Sources: prices & daily move — cse.lk, CSE close, Fri 30 Oct 2026, pulled automatically from CSE (every 5 minutes in session) · market caps = CSE shares issued × price · trailing-twelve-month revenue — stockanalysis.com CSE listing, Aug 2026. Peer groups follow each company's dominant revenue line; diversified groups are mapped through their biggest macro channel (see dossier). The peer map is free and open to everyone; no account is required.

Method and sources

Two things are kept strictly apart. Indicator levels are dated and sourced; official releases and market reports are distinguished. Elasticities are analyst priors: transparent, arguable, and clearly labelled as estimates.

Sourced

Header readings carry a named source and date. Official releases are cited directly; market settlements may cite an attributed published report when direct exchange data is not accessible.

Estimated

Sensitivities and lags are set by analyst judgement anchored on published sector accounts and historical episodes. They are priors, not fitted coefficients, and every scenario output inherits that caveat.

Versioned

Matrix revisions are dated and changelogged. When a prior moves, the changelog records the old value, the new value, and the reason it changed.

Update cadence

The site is not a live feed. Each series is refreshed when its publisher releases: CCPI monthly on the last working day, arrivals monthly, the tea average in the first week, banking-sector data quarterly, the policy rate on eight review dates a year. Between releases nothing changes, and the date on every reading tells you when it last did.

Next scheduled releases

Monetary policy review 30 September 2026. CCPI at each month end. SLTDA arrivals in the first fortnight of the following month. The Colombo auction runs weekly; the national average is published monthly.

Change log

When a reading is replaced or a prior is revised, the old value, the new value and the reason are recorded. Sensitivities do not move quietly.

Questions, asked first

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