Three outlooks.
Three dates.
A forecast is a view formed with a particular information set. Keep the institution, release date and measurement period beside the number. The annual outlooks below do not overwrite MacroLens's frozen Forward view or quarterly GDP nowcast.
Checked 14 Oct 2026 · IMF October WEO · ADB September outlook · World Bank October outlook
A like-period comparison
IMF is the 13 Oct WEO vintage; ADB is 23 Sep and World Bank is 6 Oct. The older May IMF programme forecast remains in the archived 8 Oct snapshot. Differences can reflect new information, assumptions and methods. The three numbers do not define a confidence interval. Annual-average inflation is not September's 8.0% CCPI year-on-year print.
Agreement is not disbursement
Seventh review: staff-level agreement
The release makes Executive Board approval conditional on presenting the 2027 Budget to Parliament in line with programme parameters and completing the financing-assurances review.
Approximately US$345m at the release's conversion. This is not a confirmed seventh-review disbursement.
Approximately US$2.7bn. A conditional cumulative total, not a newly received amount.
IMF seventh-review statement, 4 Oct · CBSL reproduction, 5 Oct.
This is the status stated in that release. It does not certify completion of every structural benchmark or the receipt of funds after publication. The May combined fifth/sixth review was Board-completed; it is a different milestone.
Definitions before conclusions
Real GDP: annual percent change in output, not quarter-on-quarter growth, quarterly year-on-year growth or a nowcast. Inflation: annual-average consumer price inflation, not end-year inflation. The current IMF record is its WEO annual-average consumer inflation series; the older May programme table explicitly used Colombo CPI. Country-specific CPI definitions should still be checked before treating the annual inflation rows as exact substitutes.
Historical source-check seam: the May programme web table returned 5.3% for 2026 average inflation, while both visually inspected tables in Country Report 26/111 showed 5.0% for 2026 and 5.3% for 2027. Those older PDF values remain in the archived snapshot. The current record instead follows the October WEO series: 5.3% for 2026 and 5.4% for 2027. Fiscal and debt projections are not compared here: institutional coverage and footnotes differ, including central government versus broader public debt and treatment of interest receipts.
No automatic update is promised. No full programme-compliance, official forecast scoring or full strategy-dashboard parity claim. Historical vintages remain recoverable through the structured snapshot and dated sources.
Download the current structured snapshot · Archived 8 Oct snapshot · World Bank release page, 6 Oct · ADB publication page, 23 Sep.