Major shock alerts - pre-launch
Only the moves that matter.
A separate opt-in for major Sri Lanka economic shocks and changes. This is not the daily brief, and it will not use experimental forecasts or frozen Forward ranges as triggers.
Draft trigger set
What would qualify
Deterministic observed changes only. These are editorial draft thresholds, not historically validated rules. A source outage is an audit issue, not an economic alert.
| Alert | Trigger | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Policy decision | A change to the current CBSL Overnight Policy Rate or its standing-facility corridor | Official CBSL release |
| Government funding | Any weekly T-bill tenor moves at least 50 bp, or auction cover falls below 1.0x | PDMO auction result |
| Currency shock | USD/LKR moves at least 1.5% in a day or 3% over five observations | FX reference feed plus source check |
| Energy shock | Brent moves at least 6% in a day or $10/bbl over a week | Named market report, dated |
| Reserves shock | Gross reserves move at least 5% or $250m in a monthly print | CBSL external-sector release |
| Discrete shock | IMF Board/review decision, sovereign rating action or officially reported islandwide grid outage/restoration | Official or publisher-linked notice |
Evidence tiers. Tier 1 is an official CBSL, PDMO, CSE, IMF, rating-agency or utility release. Tier 2 is an established publisher quoting a named authority, used only for urgent utility disruption/restoration until an official bulletin is available. If a source cannot be checked, record an audit gap; do not send a shock alert from stale data.
Not alert triggers: frozen Forward ranges, the experimental GDP nowcast, scenario outputs, desk sentiment, competitor forecasts, planned port moves, AWPR readings, an unverified ASPI feed, or unverified publisher claims.
Separate opt-in
How subscription will work
Enter an email address.
Public signup, no account required. The daily brief stays separate; nobody is auto-enrolled.
Public signup, no account required. The daily brief stays separate; nobody is auto-enrolled.
Confirm once.
A single-use, expiring confirmation link turns the address on only if it is not globally suppressed.
A single-use, expiring confirmation link turns the address on only if it is not globally suppressed.
Stop this channel any time.
Shock-alert unsubscribe stops shock alerts only. The existing global unsubscribe still suppresses every MacroLens email.
Shock-alert unsubscribe stops shock alerts only. The existing global unsubscribe still suppresses every MacroLens email.